474 FXUS64 KLCH 042326 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern with a weakness aloft, surface trough near the northern Gulf coast, and tropical like moisture all combine for high rain chances into the weekend. - With a very moist air mass in place, the storms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates in a short period of time. - Easterly winds over the coastal waters, along with wave heights, will remain elevated into Friday as a weak surface low forms along the coastal trough. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for locations east of Cameron. - Conditions will remain warm and humid through the weekend with chances of rainfall decreasing and becoming more isolated early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Clustered showers and thunderstorms will push inland over Southeast Tx and portions of Southwest LA through this afternoon and early evening. The synoptic pattern consists of High pressure consolidating over the Carolinas this afternoon while troughing over the northern Gulf tightens and is expected lift north into the LA Gulf Coast through Saturday morning. This pattern will facilitate periods of heavy rainfall. With the ridge in place along the east coast, winds will remain elevated out of the east into Friday. Combined with mostly cloudy skies, highs will trend in the low to mid 80s. As the coastal trough begins to meander north, there may be a lull in activity for a decent portion of Friday across the forecast area. That said, with a very saturated atmosphere, some isolated activity may be present during the afternoon. However, this may be a good window to sneak in a mowing or some outdoor work depending how saturated local backyards are after today's rainfall. Slightly warmer highs expected in the mid to upper 80s are expected. Hi-res guidance is suggestive that portion of the coastal trough will lift inland Saturday along the Atchafalaya Basin. However, where the heaviest rainfall will occur is still up for debate given the reliability of these models has been sub-par. Current idea is that strongest area of convergence may setup along the I-49 corridor. However, the vast majority will see rain chances at least 50% or higher through the afternoon. By Sunday, another upper level trough will evolve from the Southwest US and tighten the gradient across TX. Meanwhile subtropical ridging over the central Gulf begins to shift eastward. This change to the pattern will support heavier precipitation across interior locations up along the Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southern Plains. There is currently a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over these locations both Sat and Sun. Upper level troughing begins to pull away from the TX / LA Coast and off New England Monday. With slightly less cloud cover and drying among the mid-levels, temperatures will trend closer to 90F areawide. Rain chances here on out through the remainder of the forecast period trend low to isolated chances of diurnal showers / storms while temperatures hold in the upper 80s to low 90s through the middle of next week. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Scattered showers will continue to decrease over the area through 05/02z with conditions becoming more stable for the remainder of the evening and overnight. Conditions will be mainly VFR overnight with occasional MVFR conditions due to ceilings. Daytime heating will bring another day of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, although the probability looks a little lower compared to the past few days. A little more coverage is noted with development along an Atchafalaya convergence boundary, therefore will have a PROB30 from 05/19-24z for KLFT/KARA to account for the better chance of convection. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 A broad area of high pressure over most of the southeastern US will extend west into the coastal waters allowing for east to southeast winds. A weak surface low will try to form along an old frontal boundary/surface trough over the northern Gulf and this will allow for an increase in winds and seas into Friday. As the low moves inland over the weekend, a persistent modest southerly flow along with low to moderate seas will occur into early next week. A very moist air mass and a weakness aloft will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 A moist air mass will remain over the region into the weekend and keep humid conditions in place. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values over 60 percent through Monday. A weakness aloft will keep chances of rainfall high, mainly during the afternoon hours. That will bring wetting rains to a majority of the area to keep the fire danger in check. The main concern will be frequent cloud to ground lightning with some of the stronger storms. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ452-455-472. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...07