381 FXUS64 KLCH 051110 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 610 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern with a weakness aloft, surface trough near the northern Gulf coast, and tropical like moisture will all combine for high rain chances into the weekend. - With a very moist air mass in place, the storms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates in a short period of time with nuisance flooding of urban poor drainage areas the main concern. - Easterly winds over the coastal waters, along with wave heights, will begin to decrease on Friday as a surface wave moves inland lowering the gradient over the northwest Gulf. - Conditions will remain hot and humid into next week with shower activity becoming more isolated to widely scattered as a more typical summertime pattern develops. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Forecast area will remain in a moist and active pattern with very humid conditions and high chances for rain through the weekend. Into the weekend, low level east to southeast flow around a high pressure system over the southeast US will bring in rich Gulf air. Meanwhile, upper level winds will make a connection with tropical East-Pac moisture. So, a very moist and humid air mass will be over the forecast area. Daily PWAT values are expected to be above the 90th percentile of 1.90 inches and a majority of the time over 2 inches, while the 100H-50H mean layer relative humidity values will be over 70 percent, to go along with warm cloud layers over 12k feet. Therefore, a tropical like feel to the atmosphere. Meanwhile, a weakness aloft will bring about very little inhibition and low convective temperatures that it will not take much daytime heating to get activity going. Also, an old frontal boundary/surface trough near the coast, will also help to bring an enhanced sea breeze. Today, a weak surface low may form along an old boundary and move toward and inland the southeast Louisiana coast by tonight. Some slightly drier mid level air and weak subsidence on the west side of this low/wave may keep the activity over south west and central Louisiana from becoming less organized. The higher rain chances according to the CAMs will be over south central Louisiana with a deeper moisture and closer to the surface low to allow for an enhanced Atchafalaya Basin boundary. Also, guidance is depicting some deeper moisture streaming into lower southeast Texas, so that area also will have some higher rain chances. On Saturday into Sunday, deeper moisture will again stream and spread over the forecast area allowing for a better than normal chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the best coverage in the afternoon. The main concern over the next few days will be the high rainfall rates with the thunderstorm activity. Any mesoscale collisions will bring about quick intensity upticks and potential rain bursts, along with allowing some training. Therefore, some high rainfall amounts in a short period may occur, and if these amounts fall over urban drainage areas, some street flooding may occur. The weakness moves away early next week, with a more flat upper level ridge forming. The highly anomalous moisture values are also expected to decrease and move away from the region. Therefore, mainly typical summertime conditions are expected. However, with the lowering in shower areal coverage, heat will increase with highs up in the lower 90s and apparent temperatures in the afternoon around 100 degrees. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the morning. A few showers are located offshore and is impacting BPT. Daytime heating will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms with starting around 18Z and lasting until sunset. Near showers and thunderstorms will conditions will rapidly deteriorate with heavy downpours, gusty winds, and low ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A broad area of high pressure over most of the southeastern US will ridge into the coastal waters allowing for east to southeast winds today. Winds and seas will begin to decrease as a surface low pressure wave moves toward and inland the Louisiana coast. Over the weekend, a persistent modest southerly flow along with low to moderate seas will develop and continue into early next week. A very moist air mass and a weakness aloft will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A moist air mass will remain over the region into the weekend and will keep humid conditions in place with afternoon minimum relative humidity values over 60 percent. A weakness aloft will keep high chances for rain, mainly during the afternoon hours, that will bring wetting rains to a majority of the area to keep the fire danger in check. The main issue will be frequent cloud to ground lightning with some of the stronger storms. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ475. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...14