231 FXUS64 KLCH 052319 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 619 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated rain chances can be expected today through the weekend. Showers and storms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates in a short period of time with nuisance flooding of urban poor drainage areas the main concern. - Easterly winds over the coastal waters, along with wave heights, will begin to decrease on Friday as a surface wave moves inland lowering the gradient over the northwest Gulf. - Conditions will remain slightly above average and humid into next week with shower activity becoming more isolated to widely scattered as a more typical summertime pattern develops. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Current conditions, despite feeling quite tropical, are near normal temp wise with afternoon highs in the 80s. What is certainly not near normal are PWAT values, which remain above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Thanks to surface high pressure over the SECONUS, persistent ESE to southerly flow continues to transport a moisture rich airmass into the region. Aloft, an area of low pressure over NMX will slowly drift into WTX and eventually the Central Plains over the next few days. As a result, little overall change is expected through the weekend, with daily rain chances and a continued threat for localized minor flooding. Convective initiation has been somewhat "delayed" today; however, coverage is expected to increase across SETX and portions of coastal LA through the remainder of the afternoon. The latest WPC ERO places much of this area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. That said, any location that experiences repeated (or even one heavy) showers or thunderstorms could see brief periods of heavy rainfall given the anomalously high moisture content. The good news is that storms should remain fairly progressive, limiting the duration of heavy rainfall at any one location, ever so slightly reducing the overall flooding threat. Heading into the work week, the weakness aloft will gradually be absorbed into the broader flow as an upper level ridge centered over the eastern Gulf expands westward across the Gulf Coast region. A more typical summertime pattern is then expected to develop, characterized by slightly above normal temps and mainly diurnally driven showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are moving northwest across the forecast area this late afternoon. This activity will decrease with the loss of daytime heating between 06/01-02z. Mainly stable conditions during the overnight with mostly mid and high level clouds moving across, although some occasional MVFR ceilings may form near sunrise into the early morning hours on Saturday. Plenty of moisture will be over the forecast area on Saturday and with daytime heating a good number of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop after 06/18z. For not will place PROB30 at all terminals to handle this. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A broad area of high pressure over most of the southeastern US will ridge into the coastal waters allowing for east to southeast winds today. Winds and seas will begin to decrease as a surface low pressure wave moves toward and inland the Louisiana coast. Over the weekend, a persistent modest southerly flow along with low to moderate seas will develop and continue into early next week. A very moist air mass and a weakness aloft will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A moist air mass will remain over the region into the weekend and will keep humid conditions in place with afternoon minimum relative humidity values over 60 percent. A weakness aloft will keep high chances for rain, mainly during the afternoon hours, that will bring wetting rains to a majority of the area to keep the fire danger in check. The main issue will be frequent cloud to ground lightning with some of the stronger storms. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87 AVIATION...07