919 FXUS63 KLMK 051710 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 110 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather expected through Saturday, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. * Muggy weather increases this weekend as daily shower and thunderstorm chances return on Sunday and remain through mid next week. There is a small chance for isolated showers and storms on Saturday, though confidence is low. * Slightly above average temperatures continue through the first half of next week with upper 80s and low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 High pressure at the surface will continue to slowly shift eastward today through Saturday. This will allow for southwesterly winds to bring in better moisture. Dew points will steadily increase through Saturday, which will increase muggy conditions. Ridging aloft will persist through this timeframe, though expecting ridging to push off to the east and broaden over the southeast CONUS. We will see temperatures continue to warm with highs in the mid 80s today and mid-upper 80s and touching 90 on Saturday. A series of shortwave trough will pass to the north. These systems and being located on the western periphery of the surface high pressure will allow for gusty winds this afternoon and Saturday afternoon around 20-25mph. Any precip with these systems will mostly remain to the north of the region, given the drier airmass over the lower Ohio Valley. Though a few very isolated showers will be possible north of I-64. Will carry a 10-15% PoP for the morning and evening hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Moving into Sunday, ridging begins to build over the central US. At the same time, a closed low over the southern Plains will attempt to push northeast. Vorticity shedding from the closed low will move northeast into the Ohio Valley, which will increase lift as southerly flow continues to pump moisture into the region. At the surface, the cold front will continue to move south through the Ohio Valley, bringing additional lift. Waves of scattered to numerous showers are expected on Sunday and through mid next week. In the afternoons a few storms will be possible, though severe weather is not expected given weak flow and ridging aloft. Rainfall totals have trended a bit higher over the last few forecast runs. Now looking at 0.75-1.5 inches from Sunday through mid next week. Temperatures will remain pretty steady during this timeframe in the mid-upper 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. High level clouds will start to move in and stick around. Winds are currently gusting to around 20kts from the SSW, but will then die down tonight before picking back up tomorrow afternoon. There is a small chance (10-20%) that HNB and SDF could see a light rain shower tomorrow morning and afternoon. However, this was kept out of TAFs due to low confidence in the available moisture in the low-levels. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...CAL