719 FXUS63 KLMK 060707 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 307 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Mostly dry weather expected through today, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. * Muggy summertime conditions return this weekend along with shower and storm chances returning Sunday. Rain chances should continue through at least next Wednesday, with the highest chances expected Monday and Tuesday. Severe weather is unlikely, but heavy rainfall in showers and storms could lead to localized flooding. * Slightly above average temperatures continue through the first half of next week with upper 80s and low 90s. Hot and muggy and conditions likely to continue into late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Looking for another dry and warmer day as surface high pressure is anchored off the Carolina Coast, and upper ridging also tries to hold over our region. There will be a shortwave trough traversing the Great Lakes region, with a trailing cold front trying to sag southward toward the Ohio River later this evening, but overall most of the activity should stay just north of our southern Indiana counties. Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm clips the northern part of Jefferson county IN, and this would be dependent on something surviving into the area past peak heating this evening. HREF instability probabilities do show 20-30% chance of 1000 J/KG of ML CAPE developing north of the I-64 corridor, and this will be in the presence of 20-25 knots of 0-6 km deep layer shear. So, any storm that is able to survive into the area could have just enough instability and deep layer shear for perhaps a marginal hail or wind threat. Not the most likely outcome by any means, but can't completely rule it out either. Overall, deeper mixing and higher 1000-850 mb thicknesses should support a 3 or 4 degree rise for high temperatures from yesterday. As a result, looking for mid to upper 80s for high temperatures, which is around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Sunday - Wednesday Night... Kind of an odd setup for the late weekend period as an upper ridge axis holds over our region, but we'll be squeezed by two other notable weather making features. The first will be a surface cold front trailing from a New England shortwave and its associated surface low. This feature could trigger a few shower or storm chances later Sunday afternoon and evening across our far NE CWA, however right now it appears the bulk of the activity stays just out of range of our NE counties. The second will be a slow moving shortwave rotating into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi River Valleys. The eastern fringes of the deeper moisture plume associated with this feature may reach along and west of the I-65 corridor by Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing some isolated to widely scattered chances for a few slow-moving heavy rainers. Overall, Sunday should be mostly dry, especially in the morning, with highs in the mid to upper 80s for most. The upper ridge axis will give in on Sunday night, and by Monday into Tuesday, the slow moving shortwave will traverse our region. As mentioned in the previous discussion, deep moisture characterized by PWATs around 2" through the column will be present along with overall slow deep layer flow. These factors, combined with others that promote efficient rainfall processes like a 14+ K feet freezing level, and a tall/skinny CAPE profile will support localized heavy rainfall. WPC Slight Risk on Monday looks reasonable, and the lingering threat of Excessive Rainfall into Tuesday is also noted before the shortwave departs the area. Overall, basin average QPF isn't overly concerning at face value, but do suspect that we'll get some much higher localized values possible, especially once we get in the range of the HREF PMM/LPMM data. Will monitor for a few flood concerns early week as a result. Highs during this stretch should range mostly in the mid 80s, with lows mostly in the upper 60s and low 70s. We'll linger shower and storm chances again on Wednesday, however is expected to be more isolated to widely scattered by Wednesday afternoon. An upper ridge axis starts to build in from the west during this time, so do expect a slightly drier forecast for the western CWA vs. the east by this time. Depending on how much showers and storms impact the area, temps could start to rise into the mid and upper 80s by this time. Thursday - Friday... Quite a bit of uncertainty for the late week time frame as upper ridging tries to build into the area, but will also quickly lose out to a stronger and more progressive shortwave over the north central CONUS. A cold front trailing from an associated surface low ahead of the northern CONUS trough will sink down toward our region, and could bring more shower and storm chances. However, some data suggests that the upper ridge holds on for a drier and hotter overall pattern. Do expect and overall warmer setup here with temps most likely in the upper 80s to low 90s. NBM looks really warm here, and will be looking to knock temperatures down as it is on the high end of the guidance envelope for the moment. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 159 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Will continue to see high clouds stream across the region through the period. Look for a light SSW wind early this morning, becoming more steady and SW through the day. Also expect to see some gusts up around 20mph at times through the afternoon and early evening before winds slacken again. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...BJS