804 FXUS66 KLOX 050551 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1051 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 2026 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS...04/836 PM. Temperatures will be slightly above normal inland and near normal along the coast through Friday, then dropping below normal over the weekend and into next week as a large low pressure system develops over the West coast. Skies will be mostly clear except for night and morning low clouds and fog across the coast and valley areas. && .SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...04/815 PM. ***UPDATE*** Today was very similar to yesterday, with perhaps a bit less marine layer clouds and fog. The interior wanted into the 90s to 100 degrees, and cool 60s and 70s near the coasts. Friday should see very similar temperatures, with heights falling slightly. Expecting another round of marine layer clouds with patchy fog overnight and into Friday morning, and some areas may fail to clear in the afternoon hours. Low pressure brings a cooling trend Saturday and a deepening, large expansion of the marine layer. Aside from cooling temperatures along the Central Coast over the next few days, the forecast looks on track. ***From Previous Discussion*** Overall a very similar day today as yesterday with low clouds lingering near the beaches between Malibu and Santa Barbara and warmer valleys in the lower 90s. A very typical June day across southwest California. A large upper low currently just west of the BC coast is expected to slide south into the Pac NW this weekend, lowering heights across California and cooling temperatures, especially inland. By Sunday most areas will be 2-5 degrees below normal. Forecast soundings indicate the marine layer will top out around 2500 feet over the weekend but given the cooling aloft would not be surprised to see it 3000 feet or higher. Low clouds are expected to move into all coast and valley areas overnight and clear to near the beaches each afternoon. Northerly flow is expected to weaken the next couple days leading to less wind across southwest Santa Barbara County and the I5 corridor. However, models are favoring a return of Sundowners Sunday evening with a 3-4mb gradient from the north. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...04/205 PM. The upper low over the Pac NW this weekend is expected to be followed by yet another low pressure system early next week, maintaining a trough pattern along the West coast and cooler than normal temperatures. There are even a few ensemble solutions showing a cold upper low as far south as Fresno next Tuesday with a weak cold frontal passage. However, a vast majority of the solutions favor most of that energy staying well to the north with just a weak upper trough over the area through mid week and slowly warming temperatures but still either near to slightly below normal. There are some signals for weakening onshore flow or even weak offshore flow starting next Wednesday or Thursday that would lead to additional warming but most of the ensembles keep gradients at least slightly onshore with a more gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION...05/0549Z. At 0524Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3400 feet with a temperature of 23 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF). Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight minimums by one category. Cigs may fail to clear in the afternoon/evening hours near the coasts. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours of current forecast. Low MVFR CIGs 010-015 expected with likely intermittent periods of IFR CIGs around 008. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...Low to Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of IFR CIGs 005-008 may be off +/- 2 hours of current fcst. 30% chc CIGs lower to LIFR 003-004. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...04/836 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Additionally, there is a 30-40% chance of GALE force winds across PZZ670 and PZZ673 on Saturday and Saturday night, especially for zone PZZ670 For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level seas through late tonight. On Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally in the Saturday through Tuesday time frame, seas will be near or above 10 feet (SCA level). For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds Sunday through Tuesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...RAT/CC SYNOPSIS...MW/CC weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox