703 FXUS61 KLWX 050126 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 926 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A return of hot weather through Sunday with a chance of some showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. - 2) Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front early next week, before warmer temperatures return mid- week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A return of hot weather through Sunday with a chance of some showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Mostly clear skies are likely tonight with relatively light winds. Ample radiational cooling effects supports lows dropping to the mid 50s to mid 60s. While the core of the upper ridging is centered over the southeastern U.S., above average heights continue into Friday across the northeastern U.S. This will promote further warming, particularly as mean gradients turn more southwesterly in nature. Despite some added high cirrus, high temperatures soar into the upper 80s to low 90s on Friday. Overnight conditions gradually turn milder into Friday night and the weekend given southerly gradients. The peak of the summertime heat comes on Saturday with highs pushing into the low/mid 90s. This does come with a couple of question marks as the northern extent of the southeastern U.S. ridge begins to buckle. Further, some additional clouds move into the area on Saturday from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Where clouds are thicker and more plentiful, some of the heating could be stunted a tad. Given it is early June, any daily records will be limited given a forecast in the low/mid 90s. The one exception would be KIAD (Washington Dulles) which has a softer record last set at 93 degrees in 2021. Depending on how upstream convection evolves, some of this could reach western Maryland into portions of the eastern West Virginia panhandle. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible over this region if any instability remains. Otherwise, some residual showers push through the region late Saturday. Coverage may be somewhat limited given less than optimal low-level moisture and the frontal passage occurring during the diurnal minimum in heating. The cold front crosses much of the region early Sunday which is a trend in the quicker direction. As it stands, the convective threat is looking more minimal on Sunday as dew points fall and northwesterly flow ensues. Ample post- frontal sunshine should push highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s, with 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front early next week, before warmer temperatures return mid-week. A cold front departs south of the region Monday morning with cooler temperatures expected in its wake. As upper level troughing pivots offshore, surface high pressure centered over New England builds over the region bringing in cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 50s and 60s. Temperatures continue to cool slightly with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 80s (70s mtns). Upper level ridging begins building over the east coast Wednesday with temperatures beginning to gradually warming. High temperatures will be in the 90s for most on Thursday. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are looking likely through Saturday evening. High pressure remains in charge until Friday before gradually pushing offshore. Winds shift to southwesterly Friday. Heading into the weekend, any shower chances arrive late Saturday into the overnight hours. A restriction cannot be ruled out if showers become heavier. Despite the overnight timing of this system, a few rumbles of thunder are also possible. A cold front pushing through the forecast area will brings showers and thunderstorms to the terminals early Sunday before exiting throughout the day. Flight restrictions are possible during heaviest precipitation with conditions expected to improve Sunday afternoon and into the evening. VFR conditions return on Monday. Northwest winds gust up to 15 knots on Sunday. In the wake of the front, winds shift to easterly gusting around 15 knots. && .MARINE... As winds turn southerly across the lower waters tonight, some uptick is possible. However, confidence remains low for these winds to reach advisory levels. A more pronounced ramp up is looking more likely Friday evening/night due to southerly channeling effects. This may warrant some Small Craft Advisories. For Saturday, while southerlies increase during the day ahead of a cold front, hot air temperatures above the cooler waters would lead to some temperature inversions. It remains to be seen if advisories would be needed. Northwest winds on Sunday remain bellow Small Craft Advisory criteria on Sunday. In the wake of a cold front, winds shift to easterly on Monday. Winds increase, gusting 15 to 20 knots with Advisories likely in the southern portions of the waters. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/KRR AVIATION...AVS/BRO/KRR MARINE...AVS/BRO/KRR