749 FXUS61 KLWX 050610 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the forecast overnight. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A return of hot weather through Sunday with a chance of some showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. - 2) Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front early next week, before warmer temperatures return mid- week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A return of hot weather through Sunday with a chance of some showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Early morning satellite shows some mid and high clouds wafting over the Mid-Atlantic. These will continue to roll over the region over the next 12 to 24 hours between upper ridging to the southwest and troughing to the north and northeast. While the core of the upper ridging will remain centered over the southeastern U.S., above average heights continue across the northeastern U.S. down into the Mid-Atlantic. This will promote further warming, particularly as mean gradients turn more southwesterly in nature resulting in increasing low-level thicknesses/temps. Despite the added mid/high level clouds at times, high temperatures are expected to readily rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight conditions also turn milder tonight into the weekend given the warmer pattern. The peak of the heat comes on Saturday with highs pushing into the low/mid 90s. This does come with a couple of question marks as the northern extent of the southeastern U.S. ridge begins to buckle. Further, some additional clouds move into the area on Saturday from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Where clouds are thicker and more plentiful, some of the heating could be stunted a tad. Given it is early June, any daily records will be limited given a forecast in the low/mid 90s. The one exception would be KIAD (Washington Dulles) which has a softer record last set at 93 degrees in 2021. Depending on how upstream convection evolves, some of this could reach western/northern Maryland into portions of the eastern West Virginia panhandle. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over this region given an uptick in shear and forcing for ascent late in the day into the evening as the upper trough digs south. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates as well as an increase in low and mid-level moisture likely result in 1000-2000 J/kg CAPE late Saturday afternoon into evening, despite light westerly (downsloping) flow. Otherwise, some residual showers may push through the region Saturday night as the attendant surface cold front drops south. Coverage may be somewhat limited given less than optimal low- level moisture with southward extent, and the frontal passage occurring during the diurnal minimum in heating. The cold front likely crosses much of the region early Sunday. As it stands, the convective threat is looking more minimal on Sunday as dew points fall and northwesterly flow ensues. However, the front's southward progress may slow down with lingering moisture and instability perhaps resulting in the potential for a few more robust updrafts across central Virginia. Ample sunshine should push highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday, with 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front early next week, before warmer temperatures return mid-week. As an upper trough of low pressure pivots to the east, a surface high will build into the region and bring cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Highs should not reach the 90s these two days, but manage to reach the lower to middle 80s instead. Low temperatures at night will drop into the 50s and 60s. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the East Coast Wednesday and Thursday allowing for dry conditions and temperatures to warm up into the upper 80s (if not the lower 90s) by Thursday. There is a chance for showers and a thunderstorm or two by Thursday given the added instability and a disturbance. This possible convection could occur as early as late Wednesday evening depending on the timing of mid-level energy from the west. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are looking likely through Saturday evening at the TAF sites, though brief patchy fog can't totally be ruled out mainly near MRB during the early AM. High pressure remains in charge through tonight before gradually pushing offshore. Winds will generally be light AOB 5 kts varying between south and west/northwest this morning, before increasing slightly out of the southwest 4-8 kts this afternoon. Heading into the weekend, winds become mainly westerly with occasional daytime gusts of 15-20 kts. Any shower chances arrive late Saturday into the overnight hours. The highest chance for TS appears to be near KMRB Saturday evening, possibly down to KMTN/KBWI with diminishing chances further south. A restriction cannot be ruled out if precip becomes briefly heavier, but should last less than an hour. The overnight timing of a cold front should keep thunder chances generally low overnight Saturday into early Sunday for most. The cold front will push through the forecast area Sunday, and a shower or thunderstorm is possible near KCHO mainly in the afternoon. Light NW flow is expected. VFR conditions Monday through Tuesday night. Winds northeast to east 5 to 10 knots Monday. Winds southeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday. && .MARINE... Generally light west to southwest winds are expected through early this afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, some southerly enhancement due to bay breezes is likely over the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay between Pooles Island and Drum Point MD as well as the tidal Patapsco including Baltimore Harbor. These channeling effects likely linger into the evening. It is possible this extends further south into the lower tidal Potomac River and middle Chesapeake Bay off southern MD, but confidence is a bit low at the moment; the period of gustiness may be brief in nature. Hot air over cooler water may temper mixing a bit on Saturday, though at least occasional gusts to near 20 kts are possible out of the west/southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Some showers and thunderstorms may affect the waters especially toward the upper Chesapeake Bay Saturday evening. Northwest winds on Sunday will likely remain bellow Small Craft Advisory criteria in the wake of a cold front. Northeast to east winds may approach SCA levels Monday. No marine hazards are expected Monday night through Tuesday night as winds become SE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ531>533-538. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF