672 FXUS62 KMHX 051026 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 626 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Later timing of frontal passage with cold front now forecast to track across ENC late Sunday night into Monday. Aviation Discussion Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warming trend is forecast through the weekend. 2) Next chance of precip Sun night into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Minimal changes to forecast thinking over the next few days. High pressure has built overhead and continues to gradually shift offshore which has allowed for light S'rly winds to develop inland with near calm winds noted along the OBX this morning. This has brought slightly warmer temps to the area this morning as lows are forecast to range from the mid 50s to low 60s this morning which is several degrees warmer than the previous few nights. High pressure becomes anchored off the coast today into this weekend. This will bring steady S-SW'rly flow, increasing low level thicknesses, and warming temps with highs forecast to get back into the low to mid 90s inland and 80s along the coast and OBX today, Sat, and Sun bringing a return to more summer like temps. Lows only get down into the 60s/70s each night not providing much relief from the heat each day. While we will stay below heat headline criteria, the culmination of hot temps in the day and warm temps at night are forecast to lead to an elevated risk of seeing moderate HeatRisk impacts which would affect those sensitive to heat and those without proper cooling or hydration. KEY MESSAGE 2...Latest forecast thinking suggests the previously mentioned cold front passage now occurs late Sun night into Monday. This lowers the thunderstorm risk across ENC on Sun and Sun night but keeps a thunderstorm threat across portions of ENC on Monday. Will note, latest guidance does suggest not much instability will build across the region on Monday with widespread cloud cover associated with the aforementioned front, which in turn could end up lowering the thunder threat for Mon if trends hold. Either way we are monitoring trends in the fronts timing in case the thunderstorm risk increases. Winds look to become NE'rly behind this front and with low level thicknesses also lowering, this will result in temps lowering towards the middle of next week closer to seasonal norms before our next risk at above normal temps late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Light WSW- SW'rly winds develop across all routes by midmorning with gusts up towards 15 kts at times this afternoon. Afternoon seabreeze once again develops, turning winds to a S'rly direction behind the seabreeze. Winds then become light and variable overnight. Once again not anticipating much of a fog threat tonight as today will be the first day of return flow across ENC and dry air will struggle to depart ENC. Outlook: High pressure will remain centered offshore this weekend before pushing out to sea ahead of an approaching cold front. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the weekend with high pressure in control. As we get into late Sun night into Monday, there will be a chance at some sub-VFR conditions as showers and tstms associated with an incoming cold front could bring some reduced vis/ceilings to ENC. VFR conditions then likely return by Tue. && .MARINE... Latest obs show light and variable winds across ENC this morning with 3-5 ft seas noted along the coastal waters and 4-7 ft seas noted across the offshore waters this morning. With high pressure building overhead and eventually off the coast, expect winds to become SW-S at 5-15 kts this afternoon with gusts up around 20kts while seas lower further to 2-4 ft across our waters this evening. These benign boating conditions will continue through Sat as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Will note, could see an enhanced thermal gradient Sat afternoon which would bring a risk for occasional gusts to 25 kts across the Pamlico, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds, and northern Coastal waters Sat afternoon and evening. Outlook: A more typical warm-season pattern persists through the Sunday with south to southwesterly flow and localized surges in the late afternoon and evening associated with thermal gradients. A frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will bring the next wind shift and threat for showers and thunderstorms to our waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-204- 205. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCF AVIATION...RCF MARINE...RCF