810 FXUS64 KMOB 060626 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 126 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 - HIGH risk of rip currents continues through tonight for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. - Rain chances increase this weekend, particularly over the western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible, which could lead to localized flooding concerns. - Heat indices may reach the 100 degree mark by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Deep tropical moisture is beginning to advect into portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama this morning, creating a stark moisture gradient over our area. In fact, PWATs currently range from as low as 0.8-1.0 inches over our easternmost counties to nearly 2 inches over portions of Mobile, George, and Stone counties. Over the next few hours, this plume of moisture will continue to advect northward, with PWAT values over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama reaching as high as 2.2-2.4 inches by the late morning hours (which, climatologically speaking, is above the 99th percentile for June). This will allow for multiple rounds of showers and storms to develop throughout the day today, mainly for areas west of the Tombigbee River. Coverage will likely be more scattered for our eastern counties thanks to subsidence from the nearby ridge. Not anticipating any severe weather due to shear values remaining very low. That being said, the biggest concern will be the potential for very heavy rainfall. Storms that develop over our western zones would likely be slow-moving, and with very high PWATs in place, storms will be efficient rainfall producers. HREF 24hr LPMMs are generally around 2-5 inches, with localized spots reaching as high as 5-7 inches. If any boundaries are able to set up and storms are able to train over the same locations, then the higher-end values may become realized and a localized flash flooding threat could materialize, especially considering the copious amounts of rainfall we have seen over the past couple weeks. Convective coverage should begin to decrease by the evening hours, although isolated to scattered showers may linger into the evening/overnight hours. Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected to develop on Sunday, mainly west of I-65. Storms should start to develop by around daybreak, spreading inland throughout the afternoon. Once again, there could be some localized flooding in spots where storms train, however, HREF LPMMs are not as enthused on higher-end QPF amounts as they are for today, possibly suggesting that storms may have a bit more motion to them. Rain chances lower once again by the evening hours. Upper ridging begins to build back into the area for early next week. Subsidence from this upper ridge should help to lower rain chances across the area for Monday and Tuesday, with a more typical summertime pattern (spotty afternoon pulse-type storms) returning by Wednesday. Temperatures will also be on the increase, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s by midweek, along with heat indices reaching the 100 degree mark. A High Risk of Rip Currents remains in effect through at least tonight, with surf heights remaining at around 3-4 feet. It should be noted that RCMOS probabilities have increased noticably for Sunday. Any further increases in probabilities may result in the High Risk being extended into Sunday. As winds weaken, the rip current risk should drop back to a low risk for Monday and Tuesday, possibly increasing back to a moderate by midweek. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Numerous to widespread showers and storms with IFR/MVFR conditions develop across southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama early Saturday morning through late morning, with less coverage expected further to the east. The precipitation tapers off to isolated to scattered coverage Saturday evening mainly across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Southeasterly winds mostly around 5 knots or less increase to 5-15 knots on Saturday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Moderate to strong southeasterly winds diminish to a moderate flow late tonight into Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through through this evening for most of the marine area. A light to moderate southeasterly flow follows for Saturday night through Monday. Light to occasionally moderate flow becomes easterly to southeasterly on Tuesday. Seas of 4 to 7 feet today into tonight gradually relax to 3 to 4 feet by Saturday morning. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 73 85 74 / 80 60 80 10 Pensacola 85 76 86 76 / 50 40 30 10 Destin 86 76 86 75 / 20 10 10 10 Evergreen 88 71 87 71 / 30 10 50 10 Waynesboro 84 73 84 72 / 80 30 90 20 Camden 87 72 84 71 / 30 20 70 10 Crestview 88 71 88 71 / 20 10 20 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for ALZ265- 266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ202- 204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$