116 FXUS63 KMPX 051908 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 208 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms, some capable of hail and gusty winds, will continue through early evening. Areas of fog developing late tonight. - Drier and warmer Saturday, before another round of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday. - Hotter and more humid conditions by the middle of next week with highs in the 90s expected. Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western MN early this afternoon ahead of the main shortwave trough. Storms are also developing along an outflow boundary, left behind from from this morning's activity, from Cambridge southwestward to Buffalo. Activity will generally increase in coverage and expand eastward this afternoon, while remaining fairly disorganized due to a lack of strong deep layer shear. Nevertheless, some may pulse up and become severe for a short time, as has been the case for the past couple of days. Marginally severe hail and gusty winds are the main threats until storms weaken near sunset. Clouds will clear this evening. With light winds and recent rain areas of fog are probable overnight. Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes will turn winds light easterly Saturday and drier air will work in. Temperatures will rebound back to the upper 80s. An upper low over the southern Plains Saturday will lift north to the Upper Midwest Sunday night and Monday. With it will come pwats between 1.75-2 inches. However, poor mid level lapse rates and little low level forcing may make it difficult to sustain deep convection which should keep QPF relatively light. Next week a trough will dig into the west and a ridge will buckle northward across the eastern U.S. Southwest flow will overtake the central U.S. and several embedded disturbances may bring storm chances Tuesday into early Wednesday. 700 mb temps will climb to near +12C, which is near the warm limit to allow convection. A hot and humid airmass will advect north, and if convective development does not occur, widespread low to mid 90s are expected Wednesday. Heat indices should climb to around 100. The trough will approach Wednesday and a cold front may push through as early as Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms should develop along the front and SPC highlights the Upper Midwest in their day 6 outlook. Cooler air will follow the front, and if this timing holds, the forecast may be way too warm Thursday. Given storm chances and a quicker cold front arrival, forecast temperatures have trended down mid to late week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon north of RWF and MKT. Highest coverage of storms will be after 20-21Z, but still not confident enough for anything more than a PROB30 for now, except at RNH early this evening. TS will weaken and dissipate near sunset with clearing skies late evening. Areas of fog will develop overnight, with IFR conditions possible. KMSP...Tough call on the timing of direct impacts, if any at all, from TS this afternoon and evening. Given the scattered nature of the expected convection, continued with the PROB30 until storms begin developing and trends can be determined. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind N at 5-10 kts, becoming E. SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE at 10-15 kts MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff