273 FXUS63 KMQT 052259 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 659 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop into the late afternoon, continuing west to east into tonight. A few storms could be strong in the afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts will range from a quarter to a half inch across much of the area through this evening. - Hotter weather returns into next week, with another round of showers and storms Monday. Diurnally-driven showers and storms will be possible the remainder of the week (15-30% chance each day). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Afternoon surface analysis places broad low pressure right over Lake Superior, with a trailing cold front exiting the Arrowhead of MN. The UP thus remains in the warm sector. Skies have cleared out across much of the area in the wake of morning showers, with the exception being the eastern UP where lower stratus continues to stream off of Lake Michigan. Still, Day Cloud RGB reveals some agitated cu developing over the central and western UP, excluding the Keweenaw and western Ontonagon and Gogebic counties. There, I suspect onshore flow is leading to a more stable airmass. More inland, RAP analysis reveals SBCAPE as high as 1500-2000j/kg and steep lower-level lapse rates, and a few cells are already starting to pop over the central UP. Storms should increase in coverage over the next couple of hours, and bulk shear increasing to 20-30kts could help sustain updrafts and lead to a stronger storm here and there. Hail and gusty winds would be the main threat. Keep an eye on the skies heading into your Friday evening! Given PWATs as high as 1.5in, brief, heavy downpours are not out of the question, and will note that CAMS also indicate a potential for some training to occur before the cold front sweeps through later tonight. A general quarter to half-inch of rain is expected over much of the UP through the first half of tonight, but higher totals even up to an inch are not out of the question where heavy downpours or multiple rounds of storms can occur (50% chance). Most showers should exit the region by the overnight hours into Saturday, leaving a mostly dry day except for a few lingering showers in the far east early Saturday morning. With building 500mb ridging over the Great Lakes this weekend, expect a warming trend as temperatures climb back into the mid 80s inland of the Great Lakes by Sunday, though weak surface flow under a surface high will keep lake breezes and cooler shoreline highs in the forecast. Beyond Sunday, ensembles struggle about the details, with various clusters of surface features, but the broad pattern of ridging centered over the Ontario/Quebec line and troughing over the West Coast will put the UP in southwesterly flow aloft with various shortwave features emerging from the base of the large-scale trough over the Rockies providing some opportunities for diurnally-boosted minor shower/thunder chances (~15-30%). The ridging and persistent warm southerly flow will keep the warming trend continuing, with the NBM suggesting some mid to upper 90s highs in the interior west in the mid- to late-week, though raw guidance suggests highs in the mid 80s instead, so it is to be determined whether the NBM bias correction is overcorrecting or if the hottest airmass of the season to date will be upon us. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 658 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Showers and storms end over IWD and SAW over the next couple of hours this evening as patchy fog builds in over CMX and SAW late tonight. Expect to see deteriorations to MVFR to potentially IFR or lower conditions late tonight as some thick pockets of fog down to potentially airport mins could be seen from time to time. However, by a couple of hours after the sun rises on Saturday, expect any of the remaining fog to evaporate over CMX and SAW, and for VFR conditions to dominate the rest of the period. The calm to nearly- calm winds tonight give way to generally light N'rly flow by Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A low pressure passing north of Lake Superior today will bring up to 35% chances of some thunderstorms, but otherwise will not be strong enough to kick up wind gusts of 20+ kt. Otherwise, satellite and available webcams reveal areas of fog over the western arm of the lake, which should spread eastward into tonight with the passage of a cold front. With high pressure reestablishing over the weekend, winds remain light until Sunday afternoon, when east/northeast winds pick up to around 20kts over the western portions of the lake ahead of another approaching low pressure. Guidance takes this over the area Monday, and brings a 50-70% chances of 20+ kt gusts especially in the east to central portions of the lake. Winds fall back after Monday, but may pick up again late next week as low pressure moving out of the Rockies leads to a tightening pressure gradient over the Great Lakes. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ242>244- 263>267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...TAP MARINE...LC