467 FXUS66 KMTR 060912 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 212 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Breezy to gusty onshore winds in the afternoon and evening - Cooling trend arrives this weekend with a chance for light rain early next week - Hazardous beach conditions continue through Saturday morning && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 212 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 (Today and tonight) Strong thermal ridging aloft yesterday will gradually cool through today and Sunday with further cooling occuring especially in the lower levels of the atmosphere early next week. For today it will feel noticeably less warm/hot inland with daytime highs near normal for June 6th with 70s to around 80F inland. Nearest the coast and bays daytime highs will reach the upper 50s and 60s. Forecast lows are in the 40s to mid 50s for tonight. A few inland locations e.g. the Eastern Santa Clara Hills and the southern interior of Monterey and San Benito counties may reach the upper 30s tonight. Northerly and onshore surface pressure gradients and winds continue, at 2 am ACV-SFO is 7.0 mb and SFO-SAC is 3.9 mb. Gusty northwest winds over the coastal waters continue to produce cold water upwelling. Despite the high June sun angle and recent stratus free sky, sea surface temps in our coastal waters are currently in the lower to mid 50s, approx 1F to 2F below June normals. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 212 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 (Sunday through Friday) Expect additional northwest winds, clear, dry conditions along with a continuation of cooling aloft Sunday. Daytime highs will be comfortable inland with 70s to 80F, near normal on Sunday. Daytime highs nearest the coast and bays will be in the upper 50s and 60s. In the early Thursday morning June 4th AFD it was mentioned the recent GFS and to some extent the ECMWF have been showing a trough arriving with some measurable rainfall early next week. This remains true, however forecast precipitation amounts have since continued to vary in our forecast area with our forecast area located on the southern edge of measurable rainfall/drizzle w/r/t this incoming system. A plume of water vapor is moving across the Pacific coupled to low pressure/frontal development, the development supported by a strong late season meridional temperature gradient. The low/front are moving along a gradient of warmer to cooler sea surface temperature anomalies near the ongoing negative (cool) phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). With strong W-NW jet stream winds behind this low the low/front will move rapidly toward the Pacific Northwest and northern California early next week. Surface to lower level cool air advection will push into precipitable water ~ 1.50" per recent GFS as it moves across our area later Monday, Monday night and Tuesday morning. Our current official forecast is for < 0.10" mainly North Bay to parts of the East Bay, but this bears watching for potentially greater areal coverage and amounts of rain/drizzle. Rain is not common in June, it's normally the 4th driest month of the year in our area. 15 years ago in June 2011 (4th and 28th) e.g. produced much above June normal rainfall here, thus it can happen but it's a rare day for rain in June. The PDO was negative in 2011 and it was La Nina in the equatorial Pacific. At the very least keep in mind there's a chance of rain/drizzle here in our area early next week. A night-time arrival of clouds and frontal precipitation may benefit from radiative cooling above cloud tops furthering upward vertical motion. Dry weather then returns to our forecast area mid to late week. Recent forecast model output has been indicating a strengthening 500 mb ridge generally to our northwest, along with a late week surface southerly wind reversal possibly developing. This means that compressional warming with the 500 mb ridge will be present, but so will recently chilled (upwelling) sea surface temps for the potential of natural air conditioning as an offset to warm/hot temperatures mid to late next week, at least nearest the coast. Please stay tuned to further updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Breezy NW winds will be the main aviation impact overnight through Saturday with a dry cold front passing over the region. NW gusts to 39kt occurring at SFO with Airport weather warning issued earlier. Breezy winds continue overnight then only gradually ease through midday Saturday. Onshore flow increases Saturday afternoon and evening. Low cigs already developing at KHAF and KMRY and likely soon for KSNS per latest satellite imagery. Medium to high confidence for no cigs to impact the major terminals through the next 24-30 hours. Vicinity of SFO...Westerly wind gusts in excess of 30 kt through about 08z then only slowly easing before increasing again Saturday afternoon and evening. A few high clouds with the front but no low cigs forecast at this time. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO but with lighter west winds. Monterey Bay Terminals...Low cigs already reported for KMRY and likely to form by 08z for KSNS. Early mixing out by 16z Saturday with breezy NW winds being the main aviation impact through Saturday. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1205 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Hazardous conditions for small craft continue through the weekend. Gale force gusts are expected across the outer waters and along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur tonight, expanding to all of the inner waters on Saturday. As a result, very rough seas are expected in the outer waters with rough seas for the inner waters. Conditions will begin to improve Sunday with moderate seas and fresh northwesterly breezes expected by Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 351 AM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 9 AM Saturday for Pacific Coast beaches. Long period southwesterly swell of 17-18 seconds at 3 feet will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, especially at southwest facing beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea