177 FXUS63 KOAX 050431 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1131 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon/evening as a frontal boundary moves through the region. Large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall possibly resulting in localized flash flooding will be possible with any storms that develop. - Saturday highs will reach the 90s with a slight cool down on Sunday. Summer-like temperatures return to the forecast Tuesday through Thursday with widespread 90s. A few low 100s cannot be entirely ruled out. - A pattern shift over the weekend will result in several disturbances moving through the region heading into next week. Daily chances for precipitation are expected for at least a portion of the Omaha CWA each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 The forecast period begins with convection exiting the eastern portions of the CWA. An upper trough over the Big Horns of Wyoming will shift east through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. Sfc low pressure will be over southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, and a boundary will be in place, cutting across South Dakota. A few showers and thunderstorms are currently moving eastward across north central Nebraska. A few models show these storms potentially reaching our far northwestern counties overnight. Heading into Friday morning, isolated shower/storm chances will be limited to northern Nebraska. Expect a return of the heat as temperatures climb into the 80s with a few low 90s. Heading into the afternoon/evening, A frontal boundary will slowly drift southward through the day, possibly kicking off a few showers/storms in the afternoon. MLCAPE values will be around 2500+ J/kg, MUCAPE values also around 2500+ J/kg and lapse rates decent. 0-3km bulk shear will be around 25-35kts with SRH values of 150+ m^2/s^2, possibly closer to 250+ m^2/s^2 near the front. Storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. There is still some uncertainty over whether storms will develop and how strong they could become. Some models are showing storm development along the front while others such as the HRRR are much more pessimistic in getting storms to develop. Any storms that are able to get going will have the potential of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, while precipitable water values will not be quite as high as Thursday, the setup does still give us the potential for some heavy rainfall with any storms that develop, giving us a concern for some localized flash flooding. Expect a pattern shift heading into the weekend as an amplifying ridge over the Dakotas shifts east over the Great Lakes. Models are showing the potential for a mid-level disturbance over northern Texas to lift northeast through the region, bringing a couple of chances for precipitation to at least a portion of the Omaha CWA. Saturday will be very summer-like with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid-90s. Sunday will be slightly cooler with temperatures in the 80s for most areas and a few low to mid-90s in northeastern Nebraska. Monday through the end of the forecast period brings several days where expected high temperatures will be in the 90s. A few locations may see triple digits Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. A few disturbances are expected to move across the region Monday through the remainder of the period, bringing daily chances for precipitation to the CWA. Not every location can expect to see precipitation each day and some areas may receive little to no rainfall through this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 MVFR conditions continue at the terminals early in the forecast period as showers move across the region. KOFK: Showers have tapered off at the terminal and additional shower/storm activity is not currently anticipated during the forecast period. Ceilings will fluxuate between VFR and MVFR through the overnight hours, returning to VFR by 15Z. Expect light winds out of the southeast through sunrise, with winds switching to the east by 14Z. KOMA: MVFR conditions persist at the terminal through the evening hours and into tonight. A mention of a few rain showers was maintained in prevailing conditions through 02Z as an ongoing line of showers and weak storms extending from Tecumseh to KCBF continues to move to the northeast. Winds become southerly around 5-10kts after midnight. KLNK: MVFR conditions continue at the terminal through around 19Z before improving to VFR. A few showers are beginning to pop up southwest of the terminal and are moving northeast. As a result, a mention of vicinity showers is in the forecast for the next few hours. The overall line of shower/weak thunderstorm activity will continue to move to the northeast over the next few hours. Expect southeast winds to become southerly around 06Z with winds generally 5-10kts after 09Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...ANW