347 FXUS63 KOAX 051851 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 151 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this evening into tonight as a front moves through the region. Large hail, damaging winds, an isolated tornado, and heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop. - Saturday's highs will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s with isolated showers and thunderstorms, before a slight cooldown and more widespread thunderstorms on Sunday. - A pattern shift over the weekend will result in several disturbances moving through the region heading into next week. Daily chances for precipitation are expected for at least a portion of the area each day. Additionally, temperatures climb well into the 90s with possible excessive heat concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Several inches of rainfall occurred across portions of Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa Thursday afternoon into early this morning. This system is now moving east of the region, but has slowly pushed a front into the area. This front becomes the focal point for our weather this evening and tonight. In the meantime, a few elevated showers and thunderstorms linger over Northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa early this afternoon. Impacts from these should be limited with perhaps a brief downpour possible. Subsidence increases this afternoon behind the aforementioned system, resulting in clearing skies. Highs rise well into the 80s under the plentiful sunshine. With a cap in place, instability builds through the afternoon, likely exceeding 3000 J/Kg by evening. This instability, coupled with the front, and increasing westerlies with a passing disturbance support thunderstorm development by late evening. With plenty of instability and sufficient shear an all severe hazards threat is expected. This threat should gradually lessen tonight as thunderstorm clustering and low-level stability increase. The threat transitions to more of a flash flooding concern. Many areas across Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa received 2-4" of rainfall already. An addition 1-2" appears likely for much of these same areas with perhaps locally higher amounts of 2-4" possible. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued through tonight with this expectation. Other areas, including Beatrice, up through Omaha, and into Pottawatomie County may also see significant rainfall, but lingering uncertainty on the heaviest band of thunderstorms and more limited rainfall yesterday casts doubt on widespread flooding potential at this time. Heading into Saturday, a mostly dry day is expected for many as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and low 90s. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may sneak into Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa later in the afternoon into the evening. Temperatures cool slightly on Sunday as more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in association with a trough lifting through the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley. Beyond this weekend, a pattern shift takes hold. Mid-level ridging overspreads much of the central and eastern CONUS with troughing over the western CONUS. These changes support an increase in temperatures well into the 90s by the middle of next week, perhaps near 100 for some. This may lead to excessive heat concerns and will be monitored closely. With the trough to the west, a series of disturbances round the ridge and should support daily shower and thunderstorm potential for at least some of the area. As a result, it may feel closer to July then mid-June next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 MVFR ceilings are continuing to erode and lift early this afternoon with VFR conditions anticipated through the afternoon. A brief thunderstorm is moving through OFK, but should exit the area shortly. Winds will be northwesterly, likely shifting to the east at OFK due to a front over the area. Elsewhere winds remain southeasterly. Additional thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening. Initial storms may form near LNK around 00Z before drifting east. Thunderstorms arrive and develop near OMA around 02Z and may be slow-moving, but are forecast to move south of the terminal after 05z. Winds may be briefly erratic near thunderstorms with significant reductions in visibility to MVFR or IFR at times in heavy downpours. Once thunderstorms clear, VFR conditions resume. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for NEZ068-090>093. IA...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for IAZ079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...Chehak