567 FXUS64 KOHX 051746 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1246 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Rain-free weather with lower humidity through Saturday. - Temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 80s this weekend, with some 90s possible later next week. - Rain and storm chances will return on Sunday and extend into next week. The risk of severe storms is very low for the foreseeable future. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 We begin the day with surface high pressure retreating eastward and heading toward a Bermuda high pattern. Aloft, a surface ridge is aligned to our east, but that isn't going to change quite so fast. Here in Middle Tennessee, the air mass is gradually warming up given that we've had several days of sunny weather on end. Also, with the surface high pulling off to the east, we're getting into a southerly flow, which means increasingly warmer temperatures and also rising dew points. So we'll get to enjoy two more rain-free days before an abrupt pattern shift. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Rain and storm chances will come back at us Saturday night and Sunday and linger through next week. It appears that by Sunday, we can expect a surface boundary to develop in the vicinity of Middle Tennessee while a deep upper trough develops to our west. Given the increased temperatures and humidity levels, we can expect appreciable instability across Middle Tennessee starting on Sunday, so the ingredients are there for at least scattered convection, although there's really nothing to suggest anything organized for Sunday and Sunday night. By Monday or Monday night, the aforementioned shortwave is likely to sweep across the mid state, so we can expect increased rain and storm chances with also the possibility of some organized convection ahead of and along the shortwave. As yet, the risk of severe storms remains very low. Look for PoPs to drop off somewhat by Tuesday through the remainder of next week, although temperatures will remain above seasonal norms. And with summer-like dew points persisting through at least the end of next week, there will be enough daytime instability for daily convective development during peak- heating hours. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light south winds gusting between 10 to 15 kts through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds relax through the overnight. Winds remain south through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 89 71 86 / 0 0 20 40 Clarksville 66 88 70 85 / 0 0 20 50 Crossville 60 82 65 81 / 0 0 10 30 Columbia 64 88 69 84 / 0 0 30 60 Cookeville 63 84 67 82 / 0 0 10 30 Jamestown 61 84 65 83 / 0 0 10 30 Lawrenceburg 63 85 68 82 / 0 0 20 50 Murfreesboro 64 88 69 86 / 0 0 20 40 Waverly 66 87 70 84 / 0 10 30 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Cravens