783 FXUS61 KOKX 042320 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 720 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing chances for thunderstorms late Saturday, with the Marginal Risk expanded south into most of the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot Fri and Sat with highs in the 80s and 90s. 2) Thunderstorms possible with a cold frontal passage late Sat. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Some thunderstorms could be strong with gusty winds and result in locally heavy rain. 4) Cooler and drier airmass to start next week but will trend warmer heading into latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The heat will build Fri and Sat with h85 rising abv 15C. Dewpoints modeled to remain in the 50s to lower 60s should keep heat indices generally blw 95F. As a result, a Heat Advisory does not appear warranted attm. Not much wind on Fri especially across the interior, then a solid swly breeze develops by Sat aftn across the entire area ahead of an approaching cold front. .KEY MESSAGE 2... At least sct tstms are becoming more likely for late Sat as a cold front approaches then passes thru the area. There are some timing challenges, with a faster front producing more impacts due to earlier tstms tapping into aftn instability. The NAM is trending faster, while the GFS is relatively slower. The NBM pops which were used are heavily biased towards the slower data, with most of the action aft 00Z. Based on the falling heights and expected instability, would not be surprised to see pops trend a bit quicker with subsequent updates. Based on the airmass, would expect damaging winds and hail to be the main threats, especially with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Some locally hvy rainfall will of course also be possible with any intense convection. Based on a modeled 5-10kt sely storm motion however, the main flood threat is expected to be minor urban and poor drainage attm. SPC has expanded the Day 3 Marginal Risk swd into most of the area except LI. .KEY MESSAGE 3... An unsettled weather pattern remains for Sunday. Cool pool aloft and a weakening surface cold frontal boundary will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Thunderstorm chances were increased manually based upon model consensus of mid level cool pool and vort max moving across. Some parts of the region, more northeastern portions towards Southeast Connecticut, have showers likely in the forecast. At the surface, a cold front will be moving into the area and eventually pass south of Long Island. The parent low attached to this front is forecast to gradually weaken during the day as it moves southward. The consensus model parameters regarding the thunderstorms include, the 0-6 km AGL bulk shear potentially increasing to near 35 kt. The lifted index drops to near -1 to -4. So, the environment becomes more unstable and there is enough shear for possibly some strong to local severe thunderstorms. Model soundings show inverted V signature and models have a consensus of near 500 to 1000 J/kg of downdraft CAPE on Sunday, indicating a strong wind gust potential for some thunderstorms. While not much moisture is available with the northwesterly flow in the atmospheric column, some backbuilding of thunderstorms will be possible as low level flow may present more in the way of convergence. Therefore, there may also be some minor flooding in poor drainage, urban and low lying areas with thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 4: Shower and thunderstorm chances lower Sunday night with drier air working into the region as the weakening cold front pushes farther south of the region. High pressure and eventually upper level ridging gradually move into the area for early next week. A mainly dry and cooler airmass to start the week will trend warmer during the week as high pressure becomes more Western Atlantic based. Along with this, ridging aloft is forecast to weaken. There could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm within latter part of the week. Temperatures forecast to reach around 90 degrees for mainly the urban and interior parts of the region Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period. S-SW winds will slowly weaken this evening. The flow will become light and variable overnight. WNW-WSW flow Friday morning will quickly become SW-S late morning into the afternoon around 10 kt. Speeds should end up slightly stronger for coastal terminals, especially JFK and ISP. Winds begin to weaken after 00z Sat. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Wind direction may vary from W-SW through 03z at EWR and TEB, but remain 10 kt or less. An occasional gust around 15 kt possible at EWR Friday afternoon. Timing of sea breeze at JFK and LGA may be off by 1-2 hours. Low chance for S sea breeze at EWR and TEB late Friday afternoon/evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. SW wind gusts around 20 kt in the afternoon and evening. Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions with possible showers/thunderstorms. Monday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds will remain below SCA levels on the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet. The SCA has been cancelled. Otherwise, all waters are expected to remain blw SCA lvls on Fri. Increasing SW winds on Sat ahead of a cold front could approach SCA lvls by aftn, especially on the ocean. Mainly Sub-SCA conditions forecast for the coastal waters Sunday through early next week. The exception is southeast ocean waters Sunday night into Monday from Moriches to Montauk when SCA level conditions are forecast of near 5 ft seas and wind gusts near 25 kt. Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches due to southerly flow and building seas for the rest of today as well as Friday. Onshore winds and thereby fetch are relatively higher across the ocean shorelines of NYC through Western Suffolk late Friday so a high risk of rip currents is possible late in the day for those locations. For Saturday, SW winds increase to near 15 kt with wind gusts in the 20-25 kt range and seas continue to build, with a forecast high rip current risk for all ocean beaches. && .CLIMATE... Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Friday, June 5 KEWR: 95 (2021) KBDR: 87 (2025) KNYC: 99 (1925) KLGA: 94 (2010) KJFK: 90 (2010) KISP: 88 (2010) Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 97 (2021) KBDR: 93 (2021) KNYC: 98 (1925) KLGA: 95 (2021) KJFK: 90 (1968) KISP: 90 (2021) Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures: Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 71 (2021) KBDR: 67 (2025) KNYC: 77 (1925) KLGA: 76 (2021) KJFK: 69 (2024) KISP: 68 (2024) && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for CTZ009>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for NJZ004- 006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMC/JM AVIATION...DS MARINE...JMC/JM/DS