236 FXUS61 KOKX 050755 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 355 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is now a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for northern and northwestern portions of the area, and a marginal risk for southern and eastern sections for late Saturday afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot with summer like temperatures today through Sunday. Overall, humidity levels remain tolerable. 2) Unsettled conditions arrive late Saturday afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms, some storms potentially severe. Shower activity lingers into a portion of Sunday. 3) Mainly dry conditions early next week with temperatures gradually warming through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep layered ridging builds across the region today with temperatures climbing into the 80s closer to the coast, with some lower 90s across portions of the interior and the metropolitan area. The column will remain dry with dew point readings primarily in the 50s today resulting in very warm to hot and dry conditions. The next few days will continue the stretch of above normal temperatures. The ridge should break down as upper level energy drops southeast into the region for Saturday night. This should lead to a gradual cool down in temperatures into Sunday. However, before then temperatures climb above normal again on Saturday with a good amount of sunshine temperatures should range from the middle 80s right along the coast, to mainly lower half of the 90s elsewhere. Dew point readings will get closer to 60 on Saturday, especially closer to the coast with an afternoon sea breeze. However, this will not be humid enough to result in heat headlines with the region falling short of heat advisory criteria. A cold front gradually pushes through as the upper trough amplifies as it crosses the region late Saturday night into Sunday. It will remain quite warm on Sunday, with much of the middle and upper level forcing getting south and east of the region, especially by the afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but still quite warm with mainly middle and upper 80s, and a few lower 80s across easter coastal sections. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A fairly potent northern branch of the jet stream disturbance will slide SE into the region towards Saturday evening / night. PoPs increase Saturday afternoon, particularly across the NW third of the area. Fairly good instability should be present with the likelihood of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE across the region, with some NAM guidance suggesting closer to 2000 J/kg. Storm organization may be lacking initially with much of the guidance predicting up to and just below 30kt of bulk shear through the day. A few storms could pop up along any sea breeze related boundaries / lower level convergence zones but would likely be more isolated to widely scattered in coverage. This will have to be fine tuned in subsequent forecast updates, but coverage should be on the lower side to start. Then, towards Saturday evening the front draws closer with PoPs climbing to likely and high end chance as upper level forcing increases with the trough axis beginning to dig and the front moving into the region. Bulk shear values should nudge up to around 30 to perhaps 35 kt. This would likely be enough to support storm organization, with thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds with noticeable mid-level dry air, along with hail as a potential secondary storm hazard. The Storm Prediction Center has the essentially the southern half of the region in a marginal risk, and the northern and northwestern portions of the region in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for late Saturday and Saturday night. The best forcing appears will not coincide maximum daytime heating, so the coverage of severe storms remains in question. Behind the front it looks better for Sunday. Some showers will be around, especially further east and northeast with a cold pool aloft and the trough axis taking at least the first half of the day to completely pivot through. A rumble or two of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially further north and northeast into CT. .KEY MESSAGE 3... With the eastern trough getting out into the Atlantic Sunday night into Monday, an amplifying ridge off to the west should slowly begin to build for the early and middle portions of the week. Thus mainly dry conditions with warming temperatures are expected into mid week. Portions of the region could see daytime maximum temperatures approach 90 once again by Wednesday and Thursday next week with the low end chance of a few showers or thunderstorms mainly confined to the afternoon and early evening hours. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period. Light and variable flow overnight into the morning push. A WNW-WSW flow develops toward and after 12Z, which will quickly become SW-S late morning into the afternoon around 10 kt. Speeds should end up slightly stronger for coastal terminals, especially JFK and ISP, perhaps as high as 15 kt at times. Winds begin to weaken after 00z Sat, becoming light and variable once again at outlying terminals, and light SW otherwise. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... An occasional gust 15-18 kt possible at EWR this afternoon. Timing of sea breeze at JFK and LGA may be off by 1-2 hours. Low chance for S sea breeze at EWR and TEB late afternoon/evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Late Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. SW wind gusts around 20 kt in the afternoon and evening. Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions with possible showers/thunderstorms. Monday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub advisory conditions prevail through Saturday morning. With the approach of a cold front a S to SW flow increases Saturday afternoon resulting in small craft conditions developing on the ocean waters and for the south shore bays. Marginal small craft conditions are expected for most of the non-ocean waters where gusts get close to 25 kt for the late afternoon and early evening. Sub advisory conditions should return into Sunday morning with mainly marginal 4 ft seas for the central and eastern ocean waters during the afternoon and into Sunday night. Sub advisory conditions will prevail Monday into Tuesday as ocean seas eventually settle down closer to 2 ft. && .CLIMATE... Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Friday, June 5 KEWR: 95 (2021) KBDR: 87 (2025) KNYC: 99 (1925) KLGA: 94 (2010) KJFK: 90 (2010) KISP: 88 (2010) Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 97 (2021) KBDR: 93 (2021) KNYC: 98 (1925) KLGA: 95 (2021) KJFK: 90 (1968) KISP: 90 (2021) Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures: Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 71 (2021) KBDR: 67 (2025) KNYC: 77 (1925) KLGA: 76 (2021) KJFK: 69 (2024) KISP: 68 (2024) && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...DR MARINE...JE