450 FXUS61 KOKX 051938 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 338 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in the development of severe weather has increased slightly for late Saturday. The Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center has been expanded to included most of the area, including all of New York City. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe thunderstorms possible Sat afternoon and evening. 2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible on Sun. 3) Dry weather continues into midweek with a warming trend. Possible showers and thunderstorms and warmer temperatures towards late week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... After a hot day on Sat with highs in the 80s and 90s, an approaching cold front and falling heights are expected to trigger tstms in the aftn and eve. SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg and initial DCAPE around 1000 indicate an initial downburst potential across wrn zones, transitioning into bowing segments as the development spreads east across the cwa. There is around 30-40kt of wind at h85 to work with as well, contributing to the wind threat. The BRN shows good shear to instability balance across most of the area, with a tendency to multicellular mode from roughly Staten Island west and east. The NAM models storm motion in the 10-15kt range, so in general the flood threat looks to remain in the minor urban and poor drainage category. Timing is mainly late aftn into the eve, but tstms may linger overnight with even an isold severe threat continuing due to cyclonic flow aloft and elevated instability. One challenge to the fcst is whether weak convection invof the prefrontal trof inhibits development later in the aftn and early eve. The NAM hints at this. If this does occur, aftn and eve tstms will be less widespread and the severe threat limited. The overall pattern however suggests a more robust event, so the expansion of the Slight Risk through most of the cwa by SPC seems appropriate. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong h5 vort max will drop sewd thru the region on Sun, drawing the cold front thru from the N. Warm temps initially with mixing wly component winds early in the day are progged to set up some steep lapse rates as the cold pools drops in. There are some significant differences with model timing and placement, so confidence is a bit blw avg attm. However, still think isold-sct shwrs and tstms is a good fcst for the day, especially the ern half of the area closest to the upr lvl low. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The high pressure over the region shifts more to the south Monday night into Wednesday. Ridging aloft will be strong. Conditions will be dry. Airmass gradually becomes warmer. The high pressure becomes more Western Atlantic based and weakens across the local region Wednesday night into Friday. Ridging aloft weakens as well with a shortwave trough moving in. Weak surface low moves nearby. This will make for a more unsettled weather pattern. There forecast has a possibility of showers and thunderstorms. The showers and thunderstorms are not expected to impact much overall with the warming temperature pattern for this forecast period as their temporal and spatial extent will be limited. Airmass will continue to warm and become more humid as well. Temperatures start to reach more into the 90s mid to late next week. Possibility for some mid 90s to near 100 degree heat indices Thursday and Friday next week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR with high pressure in control through much of the TAF period. WNW-WSW winds of 10 kt today are beginning the process of backing SW-S at coastal terminals. This sea breeze will reach some terminals later than others and may not reach all terminals. Winds diminish into tonight to 5 kt or less from the SW. SW winds then increase into tomorrow eventually reaching 10-13kt G19-23kt by mid/late afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... An occasional gust 15-18 kt possible at EWR this afternoon. Timing of sea breeze wind shift at JFK and LGA may be off by 1-2 hours. Low chance for S sea breeze at EWR and TEB late afternoon/evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. SW wind gusts around 20 kt in the afternoon and evening. Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions with possible showers/thunderstorms. Monday-Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Increasing SW flow on Sat will bring seas to around 5ft on the ocean, with winds close to 25kt as well. A SCA has therefore been issued for the ocean from 18Z Sat thru Sat ngt. Elsewhere, winds appear mrgnl for a SCA, so have not issued an advy there attm. Winds become NW on Sun behind a departing cold front. Speeds are modeled to remain just blw SCA lvls, with seas on the ocean subsiding to around 4ft. Winds and seas blw SCA lvls all waters on Mon. Below SCA conditions are expected with high pressure in control Monday night through midweek. A potential return to SCA conditions for the ocean Wednesday. Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the rest of today into this evening. There is a high risk of rip currents for Saturday into Saturday evening. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Sunday into Sunday evening. There will be increasing onshore winds and swells with relatively highest winds and swells expected on Saturday. Southerly winds today are in the 10-15 kt range with ocean seas building to 2 to 3 ft. The southerly winds increase to 15-20 kt Saturday with gusts near 25 kt. Ocean seas build to 4 to 5 ft Saturday. The winds become more westerly Sunday with less onshore component but southerly swells will remain near 3 to 4 ft. && .CLIMATE... Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Friday, June 5 KEWR: 95 (2021) KBDR: 87 (2025) KNYC: 99 (1925) KLGA: 94 (2010) KJFK: 90 (2010) KISP: 88 (2010, 2026)* KISP tied their record high temperature today Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 97 (2021) KBDR: 93 (2021) KNYC: 98 (1925) KLGA: 95 (2021) KJFK: 90 (1968) KISP: 90 (2021) Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures: Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 71 (2021) KBDR: 67 (2025) KNYC: 77 (1925) KLGA: 76 (2021) KJFK: 69 (2024) KISP: 68 (2024) && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMC/JM AVIATION...BR MARINE...JMC/JM