284 FXUS61 KOKX 060251 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1051 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in the development of severe weather has increased slightly for late Saturday. The Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center has been expanded to included most of the area, including all of New York City. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe thunderstorms possible late Sat afternoon and evening. 2) Widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible on Sun. 3) Dry weather continues into midweek with a warming trend. Possible showers and thunderstorms and warmer temperatures towards late week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... After a hot day on Sat with highs in the 80s and 90s, an approaching cold front and falling heights are expected to trigger tstms in the aftn and eve. SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg and initial DCAPE around 1000 indicate an initial downburst potential across wrn zones, transitioning into bowing segments as the development spreads east across the cwa. There is around 30-40kt of wind at h85 to work with as well, contributing to the wind threat. The BRN shows good shear to instability balance across most of the area, with a tendency to multicellular mode from roughly Staten Island west and east. The NAM models storm motion in the 10-15kt range, so in general the flood threat looks to remain in the minor urban and poor drainage category. Timing is mainly late aftn into the eve, but tstms may linger overnight with even an isold severe threat continuing due to cyclonic flow aloft and elevated instability. One challenge to the fcst is whether weak convection invof the prefrontal trof inhibits development later in the aftn and early eve. The NAM hints at this. If this does occur, aftn and eve tstms will be less widespread and the severe threat limited. The overall pattern however suggests a more robust event, so the expansion of the Slight Risk through most of the cwa by SPC seems appropriate. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong h5 vort max will drop sewd thru the region on Sun, drawing the cold front thru from the N. Warm temps initially with mixing wly component winds early in the day are progged to set up some steep lapse rates as the cold pools drops in. There are some significant differences with model timing and placement, so confidence is a bit blw avg attm. However, still think isold-sct shwrs and tstms is a good fcst for the day, especially the ern half of the area closest to the upr lvl low. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The high pressure over the region shifts more to the south Monday night into Wednesday. Ridging aloft will be strong. Conditions will be dry. Airmass gradually becomes warmer. The high pressure becomes more Western Atlantic based and weakens across the local region Wednesday night into Friday. Ridging aloft weakens as well with a shortwave trough moving in. Weak surface low moves nearby. This will make for a more unsettled weather pattern. The forecast has a possibility of showers and thunderstorms. The showers and thunderstorms are not expected to impact much overall with the warming temperature pattern for this forecast period as their temporal and spatial extent will be limited. Airmass will continue to warm and become more humid as well. Temperatures start to reach more into the 90s mid to late next week. Possibility for some mid 90s to near 100 degree heat indices Thursday and Friday next week. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure gradually gives way to an approaching cold front, which will pass through the area Saturday night. This will be a mainly VFR forecast outside of showers and thunderstorms that move through the area Saturday night, along and ahead of the cold front. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected. There is some uncertainty with the timing. Right now, the best chance looks to be after 00Z Sunday (8PM EDT), but possibly earlier to the north and west of the NYC terminals. Winds will become light S-SW this evening and in some cases becoming light and variable. SW winds then increase during the morning into afternoon hours, increasing to 10-15kt G20-25kt. A few higher gusts possible. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing and onset of increasing wind/wind gusts Saturday may vary by 1-2 hours. There is some uncertainty with the timing of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of an approaching cold front on Saturday. At this time, the 00Z to 06Z Sunday time window is the most favorable time. This will be refined as we draw closer to the event. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday Night: Sub-VFR in any strong to severe thunderstorms. SW wind G20 kt in the evening, but higher in any thunderstorms. Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms. NW G15-20kt. Monday-Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Increasing SW flow on Sat will bring seas to around 5ft on the ocean, with winds close to 25kt as well. A SCA remains in effect for the ocean from 18Z Sat thru Sat ngt. Elsewhere, winds appear marginal for a SCA, so have not issued an advy there attm. Winds become NW on Sun behind a departing cold front. Speeds are modeled to remain just blw SCA lvls, with seas on the ocean subsiding to around 4ft. Winds and seas blw SCA lvls all waters on Mon. Below SCA conditions are expected with high pressure in control Monday night into midweek. A potential return to SCA conditions for the ocean Wednesday into Wednesday night. Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for Saturday into Saturday evening. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Sunday into Sunday evening. There will be increasing onshore winds and swells with relatively highest winds and swells expected on Saturday. The southerly winds increase to 15-20 kt Saturday with gusts near 25 kt. Ocean seas build to 4 to 5 ft Saturday. The winds become more westerly Sunday with less onshore component but southerly swells will remain near 3 to 4 ft. && .CLIMATE... Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Friday, June 5 KEWR: 95 (2021) KBDR: 87 (2025) KNYC: 99 (1925) KLGA: 94 (2010) KJFK: 90 (2010) KISP: 88 (2010, 2026)* KISP tied their record high temperature today Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 97 (2021) KBDR: 93 (2021) KNYC: 98 (1925) KLGA: 95 (2021) KJFK: 90 (1968) KISP: 90 (2021) Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures: Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 71 (2021) KBDR: 67 (2025) KNYC: 77 (1925) KLGA: 76 (2021) KJFK: 69 (2024) KISP: 68 (2024) && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ004- 006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMC/JM AVIATION...DW MARINE...JMC/JM