530 FXUS66 KOTX 051745 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1045 AM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds leading to elevated fire weather conditions today. - Breezy with showers and thunderstorms Saturday. - Cooler Sunday into Monday with patchy frost across the northern mountain valleys. && .SYNOPSIS... Gusty west to southwest winds today. For the weekend, cooler and showery conditions return, with breezy to windy conditions. Cooler temperatures over the weekend with overnight lows Sunday and Monday into the 30s and 40s. Another round of showers expected middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight: The Gulf of AK low pivots southeast into the Pacific Northwest, with a strong 120kt jet cutting across the area. This will push a largely dry cold front across the region, starting near the Cascades this morning and then to Idaho and Montana this afternoon. Rain and high mountain rain/snow will be possible near the Cascade crest. A few showers may slip by the northern Canadian border too, but the better risk stays north of the border. Otherwise it will be dry and partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will be the more notable weather feature of the day, increasing as we head through the middle to late morning, continuing through this afternoon to early evening. Speeds of 15-30 mph and gusts of 25 to 40 mph are forecast. The strongest winds will be through the Cascades gaps into the upper Columbia Basin and near and downwind of the Blue Mountains into the lower Palouse/L-C Valley. The NBM still shows some probability of sustained winds of 30 mph or greater at 20-40%, but more concentrated near the gaps and western Waterville Plateau and Ephrata area, as well as just downwind of the Blue Mountains. Minimum afternoon RH values have been running lower than guidance. Thus I did drop the RH values over the NBM, by about 5-10 percent. This means RH values in the upper teens to mid-20s outside the mountains. (They will be a bit higher near the Cascade crest compared to yesterday with the onshore flow.) The combination of winds and low RH will be a fire weather concern, especially for any starts in conducive fuels. Central WA will be the most prone; there have been several small starts in the past couple days there. In a general sense, this wind could also mean issues for high-profile vehicles, create choppy waters and cause minor tree damage, as well as possible blowing dust in the western basin. Highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s and 40s. Saturday and Saturday night: The upper low moves into the region, with an upper shortwave pivoting across the region. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the Cascades and northern mountains, with some high mountain snow. However models tend to miss some of these events and do not show enough showers. Given the timing of the shortwave and instability (unstable lapse rates of 7.5-8C/km and CAPE of 100-200 J/kg), I expanded a shower risk across most of the basin into eastern WA and ID. These will more isolated in nature, with only a 20% chance, but it is worth the mention because I think a few will develop. Embedded t-storms cannot be ruled out too, but that risk still remains best in the mountain zones. Winds remain breezy with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph. So elevated fire concerns continue, but not as much as Friday. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will be in the 30s to mid-40s, with the potential for frost. The coldest are forecast to be in the sheltered northern valleys and in some of the sheltered central Idaho Panhandle valleys. There is even some risk across the Upper Columbia Basin in the more outlying rural areas. Sunday to Thursday: An upper trough will remain in control of the West, with another low reloading it heading into next week. Sunday the shower/isolated t-storm chances linger over the northeast mountains, north Cascades and parts of the lower Panhandle. Heading into later Monday to Thursday shower chances expand over the region with that next low. As a whole, significant precipitation amounts are not forecast, but there will be embedded t-storm chances which could produce locally heavy downpours. It will remain breezy each afternoon. Highs will be largely in the upper 60s and 70s. Overnight lows will be upper 30s and 40s. There could still be some local pockets of frost in the northern valleys Sunday night into Monday morning. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: VFR and dry conditions expected at all TAF sites with windy conditions. A dry cold front moving in from the west has brought increased winds to the region. Winds will peak around 20Z-03Z, with gusts 25-30kts, then begin decreasing after 03-04Z. Locally higher wind gusts near 35-40kts near the Cascade gaps. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. Moderate confidence in the timing of winds. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 70 45 63 40 65 42 / 0 0 20 20 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 68 46 61 41 62 42 / 0 0 20 20 10 0 Pullman 67 44 60 39 61 40 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 Lewiston 76 52 68 47 69 46 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 Colville 71 38 64 32 66 36 / 0 0 40 40 20 0 Sandpoint 67 45 60 39 60 40 / 0 0 20 30 20 0 Kellogg 68 46 59 41 59 41 / 0 0 20 20 20 0 Moses Lake 74 43 68 38 71 44 / 0 0 20 10 0 0 Wenatchee 71 48 66 46 71 51 / 0 0 10 10 0 0 Omak 73 43 64 39 71 44 / 0 0 60 10 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$