939 FXUS66 KOTX 060659 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1159 PM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds will result in elevated fire danger Saturday, albeit cool afternoon highs will dampen the threat. - Showers and isolated storms possible Saturday (40-70% Cascades/Northern Mountains, 10-20% Basin) - Frost possible across the Northern Valley's Saturday night and early Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... An upper low is currently sitting just off the NW Coast and will make its way across the region this weekend. This will result in showers and thunderstorms mainly to the Cascades and Northern Mountains and even light snow to the highest mountain areas Saturday. Additionally, moist 700mb southwesterly flow may combine with marginal instability (150 J/kg) and steep mid level lapse rates to produce a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm or two across the basin into E WA and N ID (10- 20% chance). Elevated fire concerns will continue Saturday primarily due to wind speeds remaining elevated in the 10-20 mph range including wind gusts of 25- 30 mph. However, cooler afternoon high temperatures in the 50-60s will help dampen the fire threat. The next period of concern will be Saturday night into early Sunday where low temperatures will fall to the low and mid 30s (65-90+% probability of occurrence) across the Northern Valley's. A frost advisory has been issued for these areas. Take action to cover sensitive plants/crops. Upper troughing will continue to push east Sunday which will leave the door open for a few lingering showers (30% chance) and an isolated storm mainly across far NE WA and the N ID Panhandle. As we head into next week, yet another system will be on the doorstep ready to move across the forecast area and provide intermittent chances for shower and storm activity. Best chances (30-80%) of showers are expected in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. At this time, there is fairly good agreement across ensemble data that the region remains under troughing Tuesday and Wednesday, however, uncertainty increases in the later half of the week. Solutions diverge to either 1-remain under troughing or 2-begin to be influenced by an offshore ridge as soon as Thursday with the potential for riding to remain overhead though next weekend. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Wind speeds have diminished across most TAF sites and will remain light overnight, with the exception of KEAT which remains at 15kts and will slowly fall over to 10kts over the next few hours. Expect westerly based winds to increase by late morning tomorrow for another day of breezy conditions. Wind direction will vary, but will maintain a westerly component thru the period. There is a 10-20% chance of showers through the afternoon hours, and can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence with continued VFR conditions at all TAF sites through period. Low confidence in shower or storm developing over a given TAF site. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 45 63 40 65 43 68 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 46 62 41 63 42 67 / 0 20 20 10 0 0 Pullman 44 60 39 62 41 66 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 51 68 47 69 47 73 / 0 20 0 10 0 0 Colville 38 65 32 67 36 68 / 0 40 40 10 0 10 Sandpoint 44 61 39 60 41 65 / 0 20 30 30 0 0 Kellogg 46 60 41 59 40 68 / 0 20 20 20 0 0 Moses Lake 42 68 38 72 45 71 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 48 66 46 71 51 69 / 0 10 10 0 0 30 Omak 43 66 38 72 44 70 / 0 60 10 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Frost Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley- Western Okanogan County. ID...Frost Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern Panhandle. && $$