322 FXUS61 KPBZ 042308 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 708 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for the 00z TAF issuance. No other changes at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and warm to close out the week 2) Showers and storms return on Saturday with a severe threat 3) Dry and warm again next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure will keep the region high and dry through the end of the week with temperatures feeling more like summer as 500 mb heights rise promoting afternoon highs in the mid 80s. Low dew points with only weak southwesterly flow and deep mixing into a dry boundary layer will keep it feeling comfortable and heat indices straying little from air temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2... The pattern turns more active on Saturday as a shortwave moves through the Great Lakes and shunts the ECONUS ridge in response. Southwesterly flow will strengthen a bit Saturday morning and promote some better moisture return with ensemble means topping dew points out in the upper 50s/low 60s. The shortwave passage is expected to spark off showers and storms in the afternoon with lower confidence in their potential severity. Primary uncertainty stems from morning cloud coverage/showers and the degree of destabilization possible later on in the day. Overnight convection to our west is modeled to decay, which is likely, but the degree of remnant showers and cloud coverage remains uncertain (and typically poorly modeled) and it's also likely that we have some of both lingering Saturday morning. NBM mean cloud coverage supports mostly cloudy skies but the 10th percentile suggests areas of clearing, again dependent on overnight convective evolution, in which the severe threat would have a higher chance of materializing. In the case that we can recover, a conditional damaging wind and hail threat will arise with the shortwave passage later on. A belt of enhanced westerlies at 500 mb will increase deep layer shear, strongest over the northern part of our area, to 35-45 knots. Ensemble mean SBCAPE bumps up to ~1100 J/kg, so a sufficiently unstable and sheared environment would exist for severe weather. The Slight Risk from SPC remains unchanged, and ML & AI guidance hones in on our area as well for a heightened severe risk. WPC has also placed us in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall primarily in the case that urban areas see repeated rounds of heavy rain from storms. KEY MESSAGE 3... Ridging is then progged to build back in early next week among all ensemble guidance with some uncertainty in temperatures for Monday and Tuesday as the departing trough to the east exhibits some timing differences as does the orientation and strength of the building ridge. Either way, this points toward a return of drier and warmer weather for at least the first half of next week. Ridging then may break down some and allow for some summertime-like afternoon showers and storms, though with surface high pressure in the vicinity, coverage shouldn't be widespread or bring a notable severe weather risk. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence VFR continues through the extended 30hr TAF window. Winds are expected to go calm tonight. Winds will become gusty out of the SW Friday afternoon with gusts into the middle teens possible at all ports. A FEW fair weather cu near 5-8kft are expected across the region by Friday afternoon. Outlook... Decaying showers and thunderstorms may enter the region from the west between 06-12z Saturday, but confidence in timing and location remains very low. Thunderstorm potential then increases again Saturday into Saturday night with a passing shortwave. Vis and lightning restrictions may occur in the vicinity of terminals. However, given that storm coverage will be disorganized, confidence is not high on which sites will be impacted. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MLB AVIATION...AK