239 FXUS61 KPBZ 051702 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 102 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Uncertainty with Saturday morning precip and cloud cover which will impact the severe threat later in the day. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms return on Saturday with a severe threat 2) Dry and warm again early next week with daily shower/storm chance for the latter half && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The pattern turns more active on Saturday as a shortwave moves through the Great Lakes and shunts the ECONUS ridge in response. Southwesterly flow will strengthen a bit Saturday morning and promote some moisture return but with ensemble means still only topping dew points out in the upper 50s. The shortwave passage is expected to spark off showers and storms in the afternoon with still low confidence in their potential severity. Primary uncertainty stems from the evolution of decaying overnight convection that'll be ongoing off to our west this evening. These situations are frequently poorly modeled with this one holding true to that, and thus the forecast, even 24 hours out, remains too low confidence to discuss specifics from hazards to timing. Any certainty with the forecast won't arise until we see how convection to our west evolves today and tonight. Remnant outflow, potential MCV development, overall coverage, and degree of localized moisture increase will all dictate how the afternoon plays out with the goal posts ranging from a lower end heavy rain and wind threat to an all hazards severe threat. Regardless of morning evolution, most CAMs do favor atmosphere recovery by afternoon with the HREF prob for >1000 J/kg SBCAPE and 30 knots of deep layer shear at 70+% supporting a favorable environment for severe weather. Of note: as it's early June, it does not take much sun to rapidly increase temperatures and destabilize the atmosphere. So even if morning showers/clouds linger, just a couple hours of clearing would be enough, though a balance would be needed so as there's enough time to destabilize but not too much to mix out dew points. In short, we're still uncertain with numerous factors at play. In the majority of outcomes, initiation is likely first to the north and sinking south through the evening. The Slight Risk from SPC remains unchanged, and ML & AI guidance hones in on our area as well for a heightened severe risk. WPC has also placed us in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall primarily in the case that urban areas see repeated rounds of heavy rain from storms. KEY MESSAGE 2... Ridging is then progged to build back in early next week among all ensemble guidance with some uncertainty in temperatures for Monday and Tuesday as the departing trough to the east exhibits some timing differences as does the orientation and strength of the building ridge. Lingering troughing could hold temperatures in the upper 70s while quicker ridging could point to 80s for the majority of the week. Either way, a return of drier and warmer weather is anticipated for at least the first half of next week. Ridging then may break down some and allow for some summertime-like afternoon showers and storms, though with surface high pressure in the vicinity, coverage shouldn't be widespread or bring a notable severe weather risk. High temperatures will be highly dependent on coverage of convection. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Fair weather cu and 20-25kt gusts are expected with diurnal heating this afternoon/evening. Mid-lvl clouds are expected to advance into the region from the west due to forecasted convection south and west of the Great Lakes. A disturbance to our west could potential impact our region as early as tomorrow morning, showers and isolated storms may form on the edge of an outflow boundary between 10Z to 15Z Saturday. However, given that convection will be disorganized, only mentioned in PROB30s for a few terminals. Lightning and vis restrictions would most likely be the main concern. A trough is expected to cross the region Saturday afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorm are expected to redevelop from remnant outflow after 18Z. Exact timing of impacts to airports is uncertain, though general afternoon/evening impacts are likely; TEMPOS have been added with the latest forecast briefing. A few storms could be strong to severe and produce hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes. Thunderstorm chances will likely diminish with an advancing cold front from the north between 02Z to 06Z Sunday. Outlook... Cig restrictions are possible Sunday morning with low level moisture in place, before VFR returns late in the day under building high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MLB AVIATION...Hefferan