805 FXUS61 KPHI 051750 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 150 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 18Z TAFs. Updated Marine section. Updated Key Messages. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. High pressure keeps the area dry through into much of Saturday. 2. A cold front will cross the area Saturday Night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe. 3. Mainly dry next week with gradually warming temperatures through the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure keeps the area dry through into much of Saturday. High pressure over the Appalachians will slide off the Mid- Atlantic coast this evening. It'll remain off the Southeast and Middle Atlantic coasts into Saturday. Very warn but rather dry conditions will continue through the evening as warm air advection and a strong sun angle contribute to excellent radiational warming. It will remain warm and become more muggy tonight with lows in the 60s. Continued warm with similar high temperatures on Saturday, though dew points will begin to creep up into the upper 50s and low 60s in the afternoon, resulting in slightly higher max heat index values. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will cross the area Saturday Night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe. The summer-like pattern breaks with a cold front coming through late Saturday Night/early Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form out to the west along the front and move towards our area. Daytime Saturday looks mainly dry but Saturday night looks to be at least somewhat active. The latest SPC severe weather outlook (as of 2PM Friday) shows that most areas North/West of I-95 have a Slight risk for severe weather on Saturday. Areas just to the S/E of the Slight risk (including south NJ and Philly metro areas) have a Marginal risk for severe weather. Lastly, our Delmarva areas have just a general risk for tstms. For severe areas, Hail and Damaging winds appear to be the main threats. The timing for the strongest storms looks to be mid/late afternoon for the NW areas and closer to sunset for the Delaware Valley and areas S/E of that. Any convection will weaken as the night goes on, limiting the severe risk for areas along and south/east of the I-95 corridor. Latest model guidance runs have also been trending downward with the QPF amounts, especially in areas outside of the Marginal Risk. This is a bit problematic given that this is the only real chance for measurable precipitation over the next 7 days and all four states in our CWA have either a Drought Watch or Drought Warning. Current QPF for areas north/west of the I-95 corridor is around a tenth to a quarter of an inch with higher amounts in any thunderstorms. It isn't much but its at least something. Some areas likely will not see any precipitation with this frontal passage. Showers could linger along the coast into Sunday but should clear out once a secondary front passes later Sunday. It should mainly be dry to close out the weekend though. KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry next week with gradually warming temperatures through the week. High pressure moves in from the north in the wake of the front, resulting in cooler temperatures in the 70s and 80s to start next week. There is some signal in medium range guidance for another stretch of above normal temperatures though as that area of high pressure slides offshore, with southerly return flow setting up. The heat will be the main thing to watch with the forecast for the latter half of next week, though there are some low precipitation chances as well. Details will come into focus over the next few days. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. S to SW winds 5 kt or less. High confidence. Saturday... VFR. Southwesterly wind gusts around 20-25 kt. Outlook... Saturday Night through Sunday Morning...Sub-VFR conditions likely with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through. Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather. Wednesday... VFR probable. Scattered showers late. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions continue tonight and Saturday morning. West to southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt the rest of the afternoon and tonight. Seas 2 to 3 feet tonight then, building closer to 4 feet Saturday. For Saturday afternoon, a SCA flag was raised as winds will increase closer to 15 to 20 kts with gusts closer to 25 kts. Seas will build closer to 5ft. Fair weather into the evening. Outlook... Saturday Night...SCA conditions across the northern waters but remaining just below for the DE and off srn NJ waters. Showers and a few tstms overnight but then diminishing by Sunday morning. Sunday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Rip Currents... Rest of today, southwest winds around 10 mph will turn to the south at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 1 to 3 feet with a light southeast swell around 8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. On Saturday, winds will be slightly more southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Breaking waves will be 2 to 3 feet with a light easterly swell around 8 seconds. This results in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk at Delaware Beaches. Ocean water temperatures are in the upper 50s to low 60s. These chilly water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ070-071- 101>106. NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ012>027. DE...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ001>004. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoeflich/MPS/OHara AVIATION...OHara MARINE...OHara