442 

FXUS65 KPIH 060420

AFDPIH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pocatello ID

1020 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow into Sunday with

  virga or light rain possible



- Gusty winds expected throughout the weekend, strongest on

  Sunday with potential wind-related headlines 



- Wetter next week as low pressure drifts across the area with

  BELOW AVERAGE temperatures starting Tuesday



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1226 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



A fairly quiet evening and Saturday morning on tap for central

and eastern Idaho, ahead of the next low crossing the state. By

We may see some virga develop late morning as some mid level

moisture begins to increase. By afternoon, the latest thunder

probabilities from the Blend of Models, REFS, and HREF indicate

the potential for isolated thunderstorms that will linger into

through around midnight. We included this in the forecast with

the expectation of virga/sprinkles and some gusty winds on top

of the expected overall wind. There is a 10-40% chance of gusts

over 35 mph with this development, potentially topping out

closer to 50 mph. By Sunday morning, a better chance of light 

rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will exist across most 

of the central mountains, eastern and southeast highlands. We 

should see any shower or thunderstorm activity out of eastern 

Idaho by later Sunday evening. As this low approaches wind will 

continue to increase. Gusts of 25-35 mph are expected across the

Arco Desert and into the central mountains through this 

evening. Winds ramp up again tomorrow, with widespread gusts of 

20-40 mph with some localized higher gusts. There will be a

smaller-sized area across the Arco Desert where we COULD meet

WIND ADVISORY criteria for a few hours, but not enough for us to

issue a headline for that. Sunday will have much stronger wind.

The strongest will likely occur early morning through the 

afternoon. We currently have sustained winds of 30-40 mph 

across the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, adjacent bench areas from 

Burley to Rexburg and St. Anthony, and higher elevations of the 

central mountains. Gusts of 30-50 mph are forecast at the 

moment, with potentially locally higher gusts. We will continue 

to evaluate this, but with current trends, we will likely need a

WIND ADVISORY for most if not all of the Snake Plain and Magic 

Valley, perhaps extending into the South Hills and Albion 

Mountains. Temperatures peak today, with valley temperatures in 

the 50s and 60s by Sunday. 



We see a break Monday before more showers and thunderstorms

arrive toward the middle of next week. Trends are showing the

low picking up speed and not sticking around as long, but the

idea is still there for more precipitation and cooler

temperatures. The Blend of Models still is forecasting highs

only in the 50s and 60s for midweek.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1007 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



An upper level low off the British Columbia coast will move

slowly southeastward, moving into eastern OR/WA by the end of

this forecast period. This approach will bring light showers

into eastern Idaho as early as 06/11Z, but at this point does

not seem to hit any of the five airdromes. Showers spread out a

little more by mid-morning. It appears as though it stays

throughout the day on Sat between KSUN and KIDA. Time-height

cross sections for the airports keeps very low humidity below

the 700mb level. Expect some occasional mid- to high level CIGs

everywhere during the day except at KPIH. After 07/00Z CIGs will

be more widespread, but still above 600mb. No limit to VSBY

expected anywhere, and only KDIJ appears to be threatened with

SHRA during the evening hours.



Wind is a little more tricky. Moderate to strong and consistent

southwesterly flow aloft should produce G25KT or G20KT, even

during the morning hours, then again as the afternoon mixing

brings the wind back down to the surface again. But G25KT

appears to be the strongest it should get anywhere, at KBYI, 

KSUN, KIDA, and KDIJ.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 256 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



Weak high pressure over the area early this morning brings about a 

quiet start to the day, but we will see increasing wind gusts again 

this afternoon and dry conditions, though winds will be a bit 

lighter than yesterday. As such, we will see NEAR CRITICAL fire 

weather conditions with low min RHs and said breezy winds as 

temperatures also increase this afternoon. A slow-moving cold front 

begins to move into eastern Idaho late tonight and will bring even 

stronger winds to the area for the weekend. It does appear some

virga and isolated dry thunderstorms are possible tomorrow

across most of central and eastern Idaho at some point through

tomorrow night, although we may luck out with nothing across the

western sides of Zone 425 and 427. There is 10-40% chance of

gusts over 35 mph with gusts potentially topping out closer to

50 mph with any type of convective showers or thunderstorms. By

Sunday, there is a better chance of showers and storms mainly

across the central mountains (475/476), eastern highlands (411),

and Zones 410 and 413 along and east of I-15. The main chance 

of wetting rains should be confined to areas closer to the 

Montana border in the central mountains. Elsewhere, a rather

strong dry slot arrives with stronger wind gusts with it. By mid

morning and lasting through the evening. We have widespread

gusts of 25-50 mph EXCEPT for Zone 475, the strongest gusts will

be across the Magic Valley (425), South Hills/Albion Mountains

(427), Snake Plain (410), Zone 411, Portions of Zone 422 and 476

in the central mountains, adjacent areas of Zone 413 to the

Snake Plain. Although the strongest winds will be a bit earlier

in the day, strong enough gusts when the humidity bottoms out,

we are expecting some areas with critical fire weather

conditions, especially where fuels continue to cure out. After

coordination with our fire partners, we have issued a FIRE

WEATHER WATCH for Sunday in Zones 425 and 427. Other areas could

see similar, but isolated conditions due to the wind speeds

themselves. It's not until next Tuesday into Wednesday that we 

see the potential for more widespread wetting rains as a 

stronger system arrives.



&&



.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening 

for IDZ425-427.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Keyes

AVIATION...Messick

FIRE WEATHER...Keyes/AMM