175 FXUS66 KPQR 051656 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 956 AM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS...A fairly progressive upper-level weather pattern remains in place as a series of weak frontal systems parade into the Pacific Northwest through the early to middle portion of next week. This'll keep temperatures generally below normal with on/off shower and weak T-storm chances at times, especially at the coast and across our elevated terrain features. However, these conditions won't last in perpetuity as a growing number of models depict a ridge of high pressure building overhead towards the end of next week - welcome news for those craving some warming/drier weather. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday...Early this morning satellite observations depicts cloud cover increasing across western Oregon and southwest Washington as a weak frontal system begins to work its way into the region. As a result, expect a return of precipitation chances although impacts appear rather benign overall with the best shot for rain shower activity over southwest Washington and the north Oregon coast, Coast Range, and Cascades, while most interior valleys roughly south of Portland remain dry. Given the showery nature of this system, rainfall amounts today will vary across the area and the highest amounts will ultimately depend on where showers set-up. Most locations should see less than 0.10" of an inch of rainfall into this evening. In addition, there is a 10-15% chance for isolated thunderstorms across southwest Washington Friday afternoon due to increasing instability from cold air aloft along with sufficient lift from the incoming trough. Then on Saturday, an upper trough which has been dropping southward from the Gulf of Alaska will move inland bringing more widespread chances for rainfall across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. At the same time, cooling temperatures aloft will further increase instability with CAPE values as high as 150-350 J/kg leading to a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms, mainly from Pacific City and the Central Willamette Valley northward with the highest chances (20-25%) across southwest Washington. However, a lack of vertical wind shear (effective shear values near ~15 knots) leaves much to be desired in regard to updraft organization, so our storm-mode likely remains in the weaker pop-up/single cell category. These pop-up storms with a quick life-cycle are fairly normal for this type of post-frontal convection regime and distinctly different from our southerly flow monsoonal based thunderstorm set-ups which we can also see this time of year - activity associated with the latter case typically carries a greater threat of lightning/impacts. The period of watch for stronger showers and weak T-storms will be midday through the afternoon hours (11 AM-5 PM Saturday) when instability due to daytime heating is the greatest. Any passing thunderstorms on both Friday and Saturday may produce lightning, brief heavy rain, erratic gusty winds, and/or small hail. Increasing onshore flow will keep westerly winds breezy through the central Columbia Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley through Saturday with gusts generally between 25-35 mph. That said, there is also a 10-20% chance for isolated wind gusts of 40-45 mph through these areas as well, mainly for higher terrain and exposed ridgetops. If the low shifts any further north, these winds would end up weaker. Come Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement shifting the axis of the upper-level trough helping to drive our shower activity further east allowing for a weak transitory ridge of high pressure to pass overhead. So for those with Sunday plans confidence is moderate to high drier weather returns, albeit briefly. Temperatures increase day to day as well with highs generally in the upper 60s to near 70 across the inland valleys. -99/10 .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...After our one day of near normal and mostly dry June weather on Sunday, the vast majority of deterministic and ensemble models depict broad troughing and below-average 500 mb heights returning to the area for Monday. While models capture the progression of the overall trough feature early next week, there still remains some uncertainty in the exact amplitude and track of this system which would modulate precipitation amounts and placement, especially across the inland valleys. All in all, around ~75-80% of ensemble members keep some sort of troughing and the associated cooler/wetter conditions over the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday and Wednesday. During this period, the NBM projects chances to exceed 1 inch of liquid precipitation in 48 hours between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Wednesday at around 50-55% across the west slopes of the Cascades and adjacent foothills, and 15-25% in the Coast Range/Willapa Hills. Less than a 15% chance elsewhere. By Thursday there is greater uncertainty as ensemble guidance is half and half on whether or not troughing lingers overhead or exits the area to the east. Either way, any precipitation that falls will likely be light and non-impactful by this point. Then there is growing consensus among ensemble members (~55-65%) for a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific to begin shifting into the Pacific northwest around Friday which would lead to completely dry weather and a noticeable warming trend to end next week. This scenario is also being depicted by AI based model guidance as well adding some additional confidence to an eventual warm-up at the end of the forecast period. -99/10 && .AVIATION...Expect generally VFR conditions across the airspace as a trough, currently over the Gulf of Alaska slowly drifts southeastward towards. Current surface observations show cloud decks across the airspace around FL035-FL060. A series of weak fronts, associated with the Alaskan low, will slowly push inland through the day. This will result in brief showers impacting locations north of KONP along the coast and KSLE for inland locations. These showers look to be light with minimal impacts, but cannot rule out brief periods of MVFR conditions which will be associated with said showers. Southwest to west winds between 5-10 kt at most sites. It's worth quickly noting there'll be a 15% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon mainly for KAST and the Portland Metro Terminals with limited, if any impacts. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with CIGS between FL035-FL060. Light showers possible through the TAF period which could result in brief periods of MVFR conditions. /42 && .MARINE...Overall fairly benign conditions are expected through the weekend into next week while several weak frontal systems move through the region. This first of these frontal systems arriving today allow seas to build into the 6-8 ft range at 10-11 seconds with westerly winds generally gusting in the 13-18 knot range, highest across the outer waters. Then a secondary front arrives on Saturday, bringing a shift to northwest winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds only increase marginally with only a 15-35% chance for Small Craft Advisory wind gusts - highest probabilities across the outer waters. After a lull during the day on Sunday, winds likely increase yet again on Monday as a comparatively stronger system moves over the waters, bringing south wind gusts up to 20-25 kt and seas approaching 6-8 ft. Conditions then gradually calm into the middle the of the week as a ridge of high pressure attempts to build overhead and northwesterly winds return while seas hold around 5-6ft around 9-10 seconds. -99 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland