102 FXUS65 KPUB 060703 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 103 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily showers and thunderstorms continue each day into next week, mostly over the mountains. - Hot and dry conditions increase fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Hot and dry afternoons continue for most of the area this weekend. CAMs are struggling to resolve the nature of any isolated showers/thunderstorms. That said, soundings show continued inverted V profiles with 1000-1300j/kg of DCAPE. The heat and this atmospheric make up shows that storms will most likely continue to form over the mountainous areas with a few breaking off and traveling over the plains. Little, if any, wetting rain is expected with these storms. Gusty downburst/outflow winds and lightning are the main hazards for these storms. Elsewhere, expect continued hot weather today between ~85-95F. Today's winds will be forced by a mix of terrain forced (upslope/upvalley) heating interacting with any chaotic winds from decaying storms. Sunday shows more organized westerly winds for the mountains and southerly flow for the plains. Sunday's temps. will be slightly hotter for the entire forecast area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Entering next week, global models seem to have a solid agreement on the synoptic pattern through about Wednesday. An incoming trough to the PacNW and a ridge near the Gulf to the SE will strengthen SW 500mb flow over the area. This SW flow is expected down at 700mb, or mtn-top height, as well. Expect continued warming at the surface as a result of these light downslope winds if they materialize. Probabilistic data shows a 60% chance of temps. over 90F for Colorado Springs and 50% chance of temps. over 100F for Pueblo by Wednesday. The westerly will also be quite dry through the early week as dew points drop to 30-40F, according to global models. Fire weather will be the main concern for this coming work week, yet dangers also exist for those sensitive to heat as we enter multiple days of quite hot daytime temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions expected over the 24 hour period with diurnally driven winds overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will become dominated by high based thunderstorm outflows at the terminals, even if -TSRA or -SHRA doesn't impact the station directly. Localized gusts up to 40 kts will be possible closer to thunderstorms. Otherwise, winds will simmer down during the evening with clearing skies overnight. -KT && .FIRE WEATHER /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Through the weekend into the middle of next week, a warming and drying trend will continue across the district. Most areas will remain dry, aside from a chance of daily showers and a few thunderstorms mainly for mountainous areas. Wetting rain chances remain low. Critical fire weather conditions are likely each afternoon as very warm temperatures and low moisture continues to dominate. On Sunday, there is growing confidence of gusty, westerly, foehn winds for all areas. A fire weather watch has been issued for Fremont and Huerfano counties Sunday due to the combination of low humidities down to the single digits, gusty 20ft winds between 20-30mph, and critical fuels. The main risk lies for areas exposed to the westerly winds. As better model data becomes available through the morning, forecast confidence will increase. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ222 and COZ229. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...KT FIRE WEATHER...DS