305 FXUS62 KRAH 060623 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 225 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Shower/storm chances Sunday evening/night are trending lower. * Confidence increasing that dangerous heat will return mid-late next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 225 AM Saturday... 1) Continued hot through Mon. Temps still warm but closer to normal Tue-Wed, but then another heat wave is possible late next week. 2) Largely diurnally driven convection possible each day through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 225 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued hot through Mon. Temps still warm but closer to normal Tue-Wed, but then another heat wave is possible late next week. Strong ridging from the surface up through the mid levels over and off the Southeast coast will bring much above normal temperatures for another few days. As of the most recent sfc/UA analyses, high pressure sits just off the GA/SC coast from the surface up through 925 mb, just inland over E GA/S SC at 850-700 mb, and along the AL/GA/FL line at 500 mb. This continues to block any substantial low level Atlantic or Gulf source moisture from advecting into NC, limiting clouds, while the warm mid level temps further suppress any convection, and the downslope westerly component aloft is contributing to compressional warming. The 00z/6th GSO sounding has an 850 mb temp above the 90th percentile for this date, and this anomalous heat is likely to hold through at least Sun, and likely Mon as well. We reached the low-mid 90s over much of the forecast area Fri, with only the Triad seeing some upper 80s. Low level thicknesses are expected to be slightly higher today, and even more so Sun, although bouts of high clouds (along with a few high-base cu and mid clouds) as upstream convective debris streams over the area may curb insolation just a bit, perhaps taking a slight edge off the heat through the weekend. But overall, we should still see widespread highs in the 90s today and Sun, mainly mid-upper 90s except low 90s in the W Piedmont. Dewpoints should drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon with deep mixing, keeping the peak heat index in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but as dewpoints creep up Sun/Mon, the heat index may reach the mid 90s to near 100F. Given the consecutive days of high heat, people are urged to use great caution by staying in shade or AC as much as possible and limiting time in direct sun. By Mon, the anticipated backdoor front will bring an increase in clouds and slightly cooler (or simply less hot) air mass, but there is some uncertainty, and confidence in Mon temps is on the low side. For now, still expect highs to generally be in the low to mid 90s. Tue may be the coolest day, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s W- E. But as this high shifts off the Carolina coast by Thu, deep ridging builds anew, and confidence is fairly high that temperatures will rebound back to well above normal, as thicknesses are projected to be 10-15 m above normal once again by Thu/Fri, supporting highs returning to the mid-upper 90s over much of the area. KEY MESSAGE 2... Largely diurnally driven convection possible each day through mid week. Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will amplify from the Southeast to the Great Lakes Sun/Sun night, situated between a departing s/w clipping the mid-Atlantic coast and another lifting nwd across the Plains/MS Valley. The ridge will gradually break down through mid-week as the s/w to the west progresses ewd across the upr MS Valley and Great Lakes. The ridge should once again strengthen to the west as the s/w slides sewd from the Great Lakes across the Northeast and mid- Atlantic Thu/Fri. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will slide sswwd across the area Sun night/Mon. Guidance varies wrt the strength and location of the high as it settles sewd along/off the mid-Atlantic/Carolina coast Tue/Tue night. Generally expect the high to shift offshore Tue night and continue ewd toward Bermuda through mid-week. Model variability increases significantly wrt the overall pattern aloft and at the surface by mid-week, resulting in increased forecast uncertainty and decreased confidence in details mid-late week. While there is still uncertainty wrt the chances and coverage of convection, there will be at least a slight chance for largely diurnally driven convection each day. For Monday, there could be some showers/storms ahead of the backdoor front, mainly across the srn Piedmont and Sandhills, however coverage and amounts appear limited. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 AM Saturday... Favorable VFR aviation conditions are expected over central NC terminals over the next 24 hours, as deep high pressure holds over the Southeast coast. Periods of high thin clouds are expected, a long with a few high-base flat cumulus during the daytime hours. No vsby restrictions expected. Surface winds will be from the SSW or SW, 8-12 kts during the day and 8 kts or less at night. Looking beyond 06z Sun, VFR conditions are likely to hold through at least Sun, as the high pressure sitting over the region shifts slowly E and offshore. A backdoor cold front settling into the area from the north will bring a few showers and storms Sunday evening and night across the N and E. The chance for sub-VFR clouds will increase late Mon and persist through Wed, but confidence is low. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 6: KGSO: 96/2008 KRDU: 99/2008 KFAY: 99/1943 June 7: KGSO: 98/1925 KRDU: 100/2008 KFAY: 99/2008 June 8: KRDU: 101/2008 KFAY: 101/2008 June 11: KRDU: 100/1914 June 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 7: KGSO: 73/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 June 8: KGSO: 73/2008 KRDU: 75/1899 KFAY: 74/2008 June 9: KGSO: 72/2020 KRDU: 75/1993 KFAY: 77/2008 June 10: KRDU: 76/2020 KFAY: 77/2020 June 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981 June 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield/10 AVIATION...Hartfield CLIMATE..RAH