021 

FXUS61 KRLX 042346

AFDRLX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston WV

746 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation Forecast Discussion Update. Additionally, a Slight Risk

for strong to severe thunderstorms has been introduced for Perry

and Morgan Counties for Saturday afternoon.



131 PM update...

No major changes.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and

  evening over southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia.

 

- 2) A cold front brings chances of showers and thunderstorms

  Saturday afternoon into Sunday. 



- 3) The system leaves the area in a very warm weather pattern

  for the next work week, with lots of uncertainty regarding 

  precipitation chances.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...



Afternoon heating will combine with an approaching cold front to

provide showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday afternoon.

Effective layer CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 are expected over

southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia with a freezing level

of 12000-13000 ft and some mid level dry air showing in model 

soundings. This could lead to stronger thunderstorms Saturday

afternoon and evening producing damaging winds and/or large 

hail.





KEY MESSAGE 2...



Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front

starting Saturday afternoon. See Key Message 1 for details on

potential severe thunderstorms. The front will slowly push 

southward through the area Saturday night and Sunday, allowing 

for continued chances of precipitation. 





KEY MESSAGE 3...



Models are struggling for the next work week to determine how 

far south the front pushes, when it will return northward as a

warm front, and other details. The GFS even tries to develop a

cutoff upper level low over the region starting Thursday. This

leads to lots of uncertainty in the forecast, but generally 

warmer weather should persist.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Another quiet weather day will be on tap for the TAF period.

Patchy river valley fog is expected to form in the southern

coalfields Friday morning, remaining outside of neighboring TAF

sites. However, a brief drop in vsbys due to fog was also

included at EKN in similar fashion to what was observed on

Thursday morning. Winds are expected to remain light overnight,

then becoming slightly breezy Friday afternoon out of the

southwest.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.



ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation near EKN may vary from the

forecast overnight.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY

OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:

H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.

L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.



DATE                                                            FRI 06/05/26

UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11

EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07

CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H

PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H



AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...

IFR conditions locally in showers and thunderstorms at times 

late Saturday through Sunday.



&&



.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WV...None.

OH...None.

KY...None.

VA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RPY

AVIATION...05