191 FXUS61 KRLX 050753 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 353 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast update. Update to Saturday's severe weather threat. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday after a dry stretch. Some storms may be strong to severe. - 2) Remaining active through the weekend and into next week as a classic, multi-day summerlike pattern kicks off. - 3) Temperatures remain very warm and above normal into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front approaches the area Saturday bringing an end to our stint of drier weather. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon into the night as a result. Currently, there looks to be some pre-frontal convection that will traverse our Ohio and northern West Virginia counties which models agree on a timing between 2 and 5 PM. CAPE will be between 1,000 and 1,500 J/Kg with shear values up around 30 knots. Isolated to scattered instances of severe thunderstorms will be possible with these parameters. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail. Some models, mostly the global models (i.e GFS, EURO, and Canadian), delay the front from moving through leading to later timing and not as organized severe threat. The severe weather threat drifts south across central West Virginia between 5 and 8 PM on Saturday, with the threat waning some after sundown. SPC has cut the slight risk (level 2/5) back some with the latest update. Training storms and showers look probable Saturday night into Sunday after the main severe risk dies down. Heavier swaths of rainfall are projected to fall across the northern lowlands and northeastern mountains. Localized flooding will be possible where the heaviest rainfall occurs. KEY MESSAGE 2... The pattern continues to be active Sunday into next week as the cold front lingers across the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will prevail well into next week as a more summerlike pattern starts up. Some uncertainties are still in play later in the week as models suggest either a cut-off low or deepening trough will drop out of the north, maintaining the active weather. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures will be very warm and above normal starting today and spanning well into next week with a stout area of high pressure sitting southeast of our area through the weekend into next week. Temperatures across the lowlands will be in the mid to upper 80s each afternoon, with some locations in the valleys approaching 90 degrees; the mountains will range between the mid 70s and low 80s. Humidity will build throughout the week as flow shifts from southwesterly to south-southeasterly with the high setting up to our south. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected today outside of patchy dense valley fog for sites like EKN and maybe CRW. IFR conditions are possible with any fog formation, but conditions improve by ~13z as fog will be mostly dissipated. SCT to BKN mid to high-level clouds will move over the area throughout the day with dry weather remaining intact. Winds will be calm this morning, but picking up light (5 to 10 knots) and SW'rly for much of the area by afternoon. Winds may be be breezy at times across southeastern OH and northern WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog formation near EKN may vary from the forecast overnight. CRW, CKB, and PKB see fog formation when it is not in the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/05/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...LTC