384 FXUS61 KRLX 051808 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 208 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast updated at 2 PM. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday after a dry stretch. Some storms may be strong to severe. - 2) Remaining active through the weekend and into next week as a classic, multi-day summerlike pattern kicks off. - 3) Temperatures remain very warm and above normal into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front approaches the area Saturday bringing an end to our stint of drier weather. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon into the night as a result. Currently, there looks to be some pre-frontal convection that will traverse our Ohio and northern West Virginia counties which models agree on a timing between 2 and 5 PM. CAPE will be between 1,000 and 1,500 J/Kg with shear values up around 30 knots. Isolated to scattered instances of severe thunderstorms will be possible with these parameters. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail. Some models, mostly the global models (i.e GFS, EURO, and Canadian), delay the front from moving through leading to later timing and not as organized severe threat. The severe weather threat drifts south across central West Virginia between 5 and 8 PM on Saturday, with the threat waning some after sundown. SPC has cut the slight risk (level 2/5) back some with the latest update. Training storms and showers look probable Saturday night into Sunday after the main severe risk dies down. Heavier swaths of rainfall are projected to fall across the northern lowlands and northeastern mountains. Localized flooding will be possible where the heaviest rainfall occurs. KEY MESSAGE 2... The pattern continues to be active Sunday into next week as the cold front lingers across the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will prevail well into next week as a more summerlike pattern starts up. Some uncertainties are still in play later in the week as models suggest either a cut-off low or deepening trough will drop out of the north, maintaining the active weather. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures will be very warm and above normal starting today and spanning well into next week with a stout area of high pressure sitting southeast of our area through the weekend into next week. Temperatures across the lowlands will be in the mid to upper 80s each afternoon, with some locations in the valleys approaching 90 degrees; the mountains will range between the mid 70s and low 80s. Humidity will build throughout the week as flow shifts from southwesterly to south-southeasterly with the high setting up to our south. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions continue today area-wide amid dry weather. A FEW-SCT (045-070) Cu field will continue into this evening amid patchy cirrus. VFR then continues overnight, with the potential for very isolated river valley fog across southwest VA and far southern WV, along with the Tygart Valley. The only terminal with potential impacts is EKN, with fog coded into the forecast from ~ 8-12Z on Saturday. Any fog that develops lifts/dissipates by 12Z, giving way to VFR conditions amid a SCT Cu field (040-060) late morning onward. A few ISOLD showers are possible across the Mid-Ohio Valley towards the end of the TAF period (18Z Saturday), but have been left out given low confidence. Light SW'rly flow (5 to 10 knots) for much of the area into this evening. Winds may be breezy at times across southeastern OH and northern WV. Calm or very light SW'rly flow overnight, with flow strengthening during the day on Saturday. Breezes of 15-20 kts are expected across much of the area beginning late Saturday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium w/ fog at EKN; otherwise, high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop at EKN tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Brief IFR remains possible with isolated to scattered shower/storm potential Sunday through at least mid next week, primarily during the afternoon/evening hours. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...GW