664 FXUS61 KRLX 052348 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 748 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast DIscussion update. 315 PM update... The Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon in early Saturday night has been expanded southward. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms return later on Saturday after a dry stretch. Some storms may be strong to severe. The primary hazards are damaging winds and hail. - 2) Remaining active through the remainder of the weekend and into next week as a classic, multi-day summerlike pattern continues. - 3) Temperatures remain very warm and above normal through next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a sustained period of dry weather, an approaching cold front from the northwest will re-introduce the chance for showers and storms during the day on Saturday. An initial round of convection, currently located across the southern Great Lakes, will approach the area late tonight into Saturday morning, weakening as it does so, potentially resulting in ISOLD showers and perhaps a storm or two across the Mid-Ohio Valley. The much more impactful round is expected during the late afternoon and evening hours, as another wave of showers/storms develops across the northern Ohio Valley in advance of the approaching front amid progged instability of 1,000-2,000 J/kg Mixed- layer CAPE and 30-40 kts of 0-6km shear. The main hazard with this activity would be damaging wind gusts, with a secondary hazard of hail (given freezing levels of nearly 13 kft). CAMs depict varying solutions, with the most probable period for strong to severe thunderstorms being Saturday evening into early Saturday night, primarily across our northern zones in southeast Ohio and West Virginia, with a steadily decreasing risk further to the south. SPC has shifted the Slight Risk (level 2/5) a bit further southward to include a few more of our southeast Ohio counties, along with the Parkersburg to Clarksburg region. In addition, an isolated instance or two of flash flooding cannot entirely be ruled out given any west to east training convection. Convection is expected to steadily weaken / dissipate throughout Saturday night as it attempts to shift southward. KEY MESSAGE 2... The pattern continues to be active Sunday into next week as the cold front gradually shifts south through the area, then eventually lifts back north as a warm front. Following this, additional upper level disturbances will periodically cross the region. This results in continued daily chances for showers and thunderstorms well into next week amid the more summerlike pattern, especially during the afternoon/evening hours. While confidence on when/where is low, isolated stronger diurnal storms from time to time cannot be ruled out, along with hydro concerns moving towards the middle of next week given compounding rounds of rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures will be very warm and above normal throughout the entirety of the forecast period. Highs across the lowlands will be in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon through Wednesday, with upper 80s to low 90s possible on Thursday and Friday. The mountains will range in the 70s to low 80s. In addition, humidity will gradually build in time. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid to upper level clouds streaming in from the southwest this evening will impose no impacts to flight conditions overnight. VFR prevails into the day Saturday before late evening thunderstorms sink down from the north. While no flight category changes are set to occur within the valid TAF period, an introduction of thunder and MVFR ceilings may be included with the 06Z TAF issuance. Surface winds grow calm overnight tonight, with little to no fog development expected. An uptick in winds is anticipated Saturday afternoon out of the southwest, with gusts nearing 20kts possible across all terminals. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief fog development possible at EKN overnight during periods of clear skies. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/06/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible with isolated to scattered shower/storm potential Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GW AVIATION...05