422 FXUS61 KRLX 060741 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 341 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast update. Update on Saturday's severe weather. Remaining active next week with daily thunderstorm chances and above normal temperatures. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Some may be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main risks. - 2) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances well into next week with a front hanging around. Localized water issues may be possible on Tuesday. - 3) Temperatures remain very warm and above normal through next week amid stout warming trend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A slow-moving cold front approaches the area today bringing a return of showers and thunderstorms. Short-range convective models show a few rounds of activity today with some chances for morning showers ahead of an afternoon complex of storms that will traverse our Ohio and northern West Virginia counties. Another round of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will straddle our northern tier counties later this evening through the night as the front stalls across our north. Some storms today could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main hazards with any severe activity. Our Ohio and northern West Virginia counties have a higher probability for stronger to severe storms with around 1,000 J/Kg of CAPE and between 30 and 40 knots of shear expected across this portion of the forecast area. Timing for the first round of showers and storms according to CAMs is between 2 and 4 PM. More scattered and organized activity arrives later this evening between 6 and 8 PM. SPC still maintains a slight risk (level 2/5) across portions of our southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia counties for hail and damaging winds. There is a low chance for an isolated tornado if any organized cells tap into any wind shear. Heavy rainfall is likely to accompany thunderstorms today with precipitable water forecasted between 1.00" and 1.75". There is a marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall today and tonight for localized flash flooding across Ohio, and central and northern West Virginia. KEY MESSAGE 2... Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Sunday and through the span of the week with a semi-stationary front hanging around the area. Currently, the severe weather outlook is low from Sunday onward, but this could change as heat builds through the week and a few upper-level disturbances cross the area. There is a marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Tuesday night as a disturbance interacts with the stationary front. Precipitable water is forecasted to be between 1.50" and 2.00" due to abundant moisture in the region on Tuesday. Localized flooding may be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures will be very warm and above normal through the weekend and week as high pressure remains parked just to our south. Highs across the lowlands will be in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon through the week, with low 90s possible on Monday, Thursday, and Friday. The mountains will generally range between the mid 70s to the low 80s. In addition, humidity will gradually build through the week with dew points in the 60s to the low 70s arriving Sunday through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR condition remain intact for many sites through the day until thunderstorms and showers arrive. Some patchy fog is possible in the mountain valleys across the northeastern WV mountains this morning. This would only affect KEKN but only expecting MVFR conditions at the worst and only for a finite amount of time. Mid to upper-level clouds between 7,000 and 20,000 feet AGL will filter through during the early morning hours. Ceilings fall between 3,000 and 5,000 feet AGL by late morning and afternoon as SCT to BKN CU fields form. An approaching cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to the area later this afternoon through tonight. Some storms may be strong to severe, particularly across our OH and northern WV counties. Main threats will be damaging winds and hail. Heavy downpours will accompany this activity. Winds will be mostly calm early this morning, but pick up out of the SW after ~12z and will be breezy at times with gusts between 15 and 20 knots. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog becomes more dense and impacts more locations than forecasted. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/06/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms later tonight into Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...LTC