587 FXUS61 KRNK 051017 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 617 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. Dewpoints were adjusted down slightly areawide to account for drier air in place over the region. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather with warming temperatures continue into Saturday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms remain late Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather with warming temperatures continue into Saturday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms remain late Sunday into early next week. Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will continue to remain fixed over the eastern Conus through Saturday this week. This will keep mostly clear skies and warm/hot temperatures in place over the region through the weekend, and into early next week. An upper level shortwave trough looks to eject through the Great Lakes region on Sunday, which will start to flatten the 500mb ridge over the eastern Conus starting Sunday. A surface low looks to track through the Northeast; however, an east/west orientated trailing cold front looks to sag south through the Mid-Atlantic states late on Sunday. At this time, model guidance looks to keep some shower/thunderstorm activity along this frontal boundary as it pushes south and east; however, it may arrive into the area overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Even though that timing is not super favorable for convective development, models do show anywhere from 500 to 1500 J/Kg of MUCAPE, and upwards of 900 J/Kg of DCAPE during Sunday afternoon, and with stronger flow aloft with the approaching trough, 0-6km bulk shear between 30 to 35 knots, there is potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms.The overall timing of storms arriving into the area could prevent shower/thunderstorm activity from tapping into the maximum instability possible Sunday afternoon leading to slightly reduced coverage than was initially forecast several days ago. The aforementioned frontal boundary looks to lay out across VA/NC by Monday, which will help keep some surface forcing in place across the region through the middle of next week. Return flow out of the southwest at the surface, and aloft will usher in tropical moisture ahead of this frontal boundary that looks to remain in the region through much of next week. The GEFS look to have average PWATS in the 1.5-1.85 inch range areawide beyond Monday, meanwhile the ECMWF ensembles have slightly lower PWATS in the 1-1.4 inch range areawide beyond Monday. If the GEFS range of PWATs occurs, daily shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to occur; however, if the ECMWF ensembles values for PWATs occur, coverage might be slightly more limited. This model uncertainty is due to the development of a wedge of high pressure potentially building over the region starting in the middle of next week. The placement of this high pressure will determine the overall shower and thunderstorm potential in the long term forecast. Details will become clearer in the coming days, but for now, confidence is still low on storm coverage. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions will continue through the current TAF period, except for MVFR/IFR fog at LWB this morning. This river valley fog should dissipate shortly after 12 UTC this morning. Winds overall will be light and variable out of the west/southwest at around 5 knots or less through the TAF period. River valley fog should be limited early Saturday morning as more scattered and broken upper level clouds look to move into the region today and overnight Friday into Saturday night. These clouds should limit valley fog development across the area, although some development is still possible. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions will persist through at least Sunday morning, outside of possible patchy fog in the river valleys in the mornings. A front approaches late Sunday to bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms into Monday, which could result in some flight restrictions. The potential exists for daily shower and thunderstorm activity to occur beyond this frontal passage; however, confidence is low at this time. These showers and thunderstorms may bring brief periods of sub-VFR conditions to terminals across the region. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...EB