438 FXUS61 KRNK 052337 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 737 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. Air Quality Alert for Stokes, Rockingham and Caswell Counties in North Carolina extended until midnight EDT Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Will see increase in chances for showers/storms next week, but still not a washout. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Trend for more diurnal driven shower/storm activity next week but not a washout. Models keep us staying dry with warm temperatures into Saturday. A frontal boundary slides south later Sunday. Best areal coverage for showers/storms appears to stay along and north of I-64. Daytime heating Sunday and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected to support moderate afternoon instability ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate largely unidirectional wind profiles with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which would favor some cold pool organization with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts into early evening, mainly in the Piedmont and points east. The aforementioned frontal boundary will move south of us Monday but another wave shifts the warm front back north Monday across KY/TN such that higher pops will be over the upper TN Valley with lower chances further east. Numerical models seem to agree on this but EC model is drier. We are likely to see cooler highs in the mountains if the wedge sets up faster with more clouds and showers, with potential highs in the 70s. The NBM is still warmer, which is a known bias for wedges. The high slides south over time with flow turning more south/southwest with residual boundary in the area. This will lead to more of a diurnal trend for showers/storms midweek. Much needed rain but not a washout and not everyone will see rain, but humidity levels look to be on the increase. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected across the vast majority of the region through the conclusion of the valid TAF forecast cycle, 00Z Sun/8PM EDT Saturday. The one exception may be some very brief sub-VFR visibilities within the river valleys of Greenbrier County, WV late tonight, north of KLWB. Winds will be light and variable or calm through the late morning on Saturday. From the late morning through the early evening, expect a prevailing west wind at or a little over 7 kts for most locations. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions will persist through the period, outside any shower/storms that occur. Higher probability for sub-VFR will Sunday night into Monday as high pressure wedges in with easterly flow bringing lower cig potential for most sites. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB/WP AVIATION...DS/WP