569 FXUS63 KSGF 060540 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms today and scattered storms Saturday afternoon. More widespread rain chance will occur Sunday into Monday (90% likelihood). No severe weather expected at this time. - Monitoring for flash flood potential this weekend, especially Sunday into Monday. The entire area is in the WPC slight risk for excessive rainfall area Sunday and Sunday night, with eastern areas in the slight risk for Monday. A Flood Watch may be needed later this weekend. - Temperature and humidity favored to be above normal for next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Isolated thunderstorms today and scattered storms Saturday afternoon. More widespread rain chance will occur Sunday into Monday (90% likelihood). No severe weather expected at this time: - Impacts: Typical shower and non-severe storm impacts. - Details: A few isolated diurnal showers and perhaps thunder this afternoon/evening mainly south of Highway 60. Generally scattered coverage of the same on Saturday. - Confidence: High. - Meteorological Analysis: Large scale ascent will increase on Saturday as a mid-level trough moves north out of Texas. This will lead to increased coverage of showers and storms. Even so, coverage should be limited to scattered until the trough and greater moisture arrive on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Monitoring for flash flood potential this weekend, especially Sunday into Monday. The entire area is in the WPC slight risk for excessive rainfall area Sunday and Sunday night, with eastern areas in the slight risk for Monday. A Flood Watch may be needed later this weekend. - Impacts: Potential for flooding and lightning likely. - Details: Widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, gradually shifting east on Monday. Heavy rainfall potential may lead to flooding, but locations and amounts are uncertain at this time. - Confidence: Confidence in rain chances is high. Confidence in flooding potential and locations is low to medium. - Meteorological Analysis: Moisture increased (PWATs of 1.75-2.0 inches, or about 150-175% of normal) will move in ahead of the mid-level trough shifting north through the area. Moisture values will not be too unusual from a climatological perspective, with CFSR 30 year climo showing recurrence of 1 day every 1-2 years for the 3 week reference period. In other words, while moisture is above normal, it's not abnormal to see this level of moisture. Large scale forcing associated with the trough and isentropic upglide will lead to an increase in coverage of precipitation on Sunday that will continue into Sunday night before gradually shifting east on Monday. Lacking a stationary front as a training mechanism, flooding will rely more on convective outcomes for possible training, which reduces predictability and confidence. LPMM is typically quite helpful at diagnosing localized higher rainfall totals, but REFS only goes out through 7pm Sunday. Even so, through that time period, 24 hour LPMM values are localized 3-5 inches of rain. Keep in mind, additional heavy rainfall is expected into Monday. Generalized rainfall totals through Monday are in the 1-3 inch range. A flood watch may be needed once confidence increases. Temperature and humidity favored to be above normal for next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s by the middle of next week. - Impacts: Heat impacts, but more likely not reaching Heat Advisory criteria given current data. - Details: Above normal temperatures and humidity Tuesday through at least Thursday. More likely to break record warm low temperatures than record warm high temperatures. Look for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Mid-70s dew points will lead to abnormally high head index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. - Confidence: NBM probability of heat index > 100 F ranges from < 20% over the southeastern CWA to 50-80% over the northwestern CWA. - Meteorological Analysis: An upper ridge building over the central CONUS will lead to a buildup of heat. Ensemble climatology tools are not indicating that the airmass will be too anomalous at generally 1 day every 1-2 years relative to CFSR climo. However, moisture will be unusually high. Closest proxy to surface moisture in the climo is 925mb specific humidity, which is shown to be outside the climo range (quite unseal). This will lead to very humid conditions more typical of mid-summer and will aid in keep overnight lows warmer. Forecast temperatures are several degrees cooler than record warm highs, but are near or exceed record warm lows. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 After continued VFR conditions through at least 10Z, aviation conditions are then expected to fluctuate through the rest of the period as a system lifts through the region. Greatest confidence in rain impacting TAF sites is between the 14-20Z timeframe. During this time, rain is expected to be light but widespread. Some embedded thunderstorms will also be possible, but isolated (<30% chance). Therefore, only minor drops in visibility are expected for a greater portion of the TAF period, with a 30% chance of 2 miles or less if a thunderstorm impacts a site. After 20Z, rain is expected to slowly dissipate, but a low-end 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms remains through 00-02Z. As for cigs, guidance is a bit scattered on lowest cigs, but given widespread moisture, confidence is higher on at least BKN MVFR cigs through the period. These may bounce around a bit as the system moves through, but expect periods of MVFR cigs. Otherwise, winds will generally hold at a southeasterly direction at 8-12 kts. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Price