186 FXUS64 KSHV 051842 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 142 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend and those with outdoor activies scheduled should plan accordingly. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! - Locally heavy rainfall through the weekend will bring a localized flooding threat, particularly along and northwest of the Interstate 49 corridor. Remember, turn around, don't drown! - Peak afternoon heat index values by the middle of next week should be near or above 100 degrees. Summertime heat safety plans should be reviewed and readied. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Expecting the recent periodic wet pattern to re-intensify this weekend as a broad upper level disturbance in southwesterly flow aloft pivots to the northeast across the Southern Plains and Arklatex. Deep and moist southerly low level flow today is directed more over western zones of the Four State region and will shift eastward and intensify tomorrow, as the aforementioned disturbance moves closer. Northward drifting and propagating convection through early this evening should primarily be west of Interstate 49 and should also mainly be diurnal in nature (i.e., dying off gradually in the wake of daytime heating). However, the first taste of increasing synoptic lift and thetaE advection arriving very late tonight in western zones may spur some increase in shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage there just before, or around, daybreak. As mentioned, Saturday and Sunday should feature a good deal of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across our Four State region, especially during the afternoon hours when instability should generally be at its peak. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (and also Shift-of-Tails) suggests that the highest potential for heavier rainfall amounts in our area will be focused along and NW of the Interstate 30 corridor for both days, which is where WPC is focusing weekend rain totals of 1 to 3 inches (with localized higher totals possible) and where they also have a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. In addition, these same areas have been getting more consistent deluges over the past several days and Flash Flood Guidance values have been gradually lowering. But not just NW zones will be seeing precipitation and heavy downpours, although rain totals elsewhere will be generally in the 0.25 inch to 1 inch range for the period, although again, localized higher totals are anticipated. Some flash flooding issues cannot be entirely ruled out southeast of the Interstate 30 corridor and WPC's Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall covers that conditional risk. In addition to the heavy rain threat, there is enough combination of wind shear and instability through the weekend to not entirely rule out a severe storm or two, but primarily during the afternoon and evening over northwestern and far northern zones of the Four State Region. The previous Day 2 outlook from the SPC highlighted a Marginal Risk for severe storms tomorrow northwest of the Interstate 30 corridor, but the very recent Day 2 update pulled that threat just west of our area. NWP guidance is rather consistent in pulling the disturbance in deep SW flow off to our north Sunday night, so convective activity will likely follow suit and taper off during the evening hours Sunday. Immediately after the disturbance departs, anticipate an upper level ridge of high pressure to build in over the Four State region and greatly decrease rain chances for at least Monday through Thursday. Some isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms cannot be ruled out each day in this period, but the main story will be temperatures roughly 5 degrees above average for the time of year. This will translate to high temperatures in the low to mid 90s the bulk of next work week. Elevated humidity values should result in peak heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range by the middle of next week and one or two days of needing Heat Advisories cannot be ruled out. Uncertainty by the end of the week is inherently lower, but there are indications of the ridge potentially breaking down quickly by next Friday, which could bring about a return to increasing rain chances. /50/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all sites except KTYR and KLFK that will be dealing with VCSH and cigs through much of the afternoon and evening. KTXK could also see some impacts, but most guidance is keeping much of the showers west of the terminal. Showers should diminish soon after sunset tonight. Another round of low cigs are expected to develop from the south and west as soon as 06/06z, with several sites expected to hit IFR levels before daybreak. The earlier development of clouds makes fog development more uncertain, but certainly possible given the high humidity. Cigs are expected to begin lifting soon after daybreak, but scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west could briefly impact terminals through the rest of this TAF period. Sfc winds are expected to stay southwesterly at 5-10 kts and lighter during the overnight hours at all sites. /57/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 86 73 88 / 10 50 50 60 MLU 74 87 74 87 / 10 70 20 80 DEQ 70 82 70 82 / 30 90 80 80 TXK 72 86 72 86 / 20 60 50 80 ELD 72 84 72 85 / 10 50 30 80 TYR 72 85 73 87 / 60 70 30 50 GGG 72 86 72 89 / 30 60 40 70 LFK 72 86 73 89 / 40 60 30 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...50 AVIATION...57