579 FXUS64 KSJT 050001 CCA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A low chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, with localized flash flooding possible. - Hot and dry conditions return for much of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Expect a few showers and thunderstorms this evening but nothing organized. Otherwise, a dry forecast for tonight. For Friday, looks quiet during the morning hours. The combination of moderate instability and abundant moisture during the afternoon will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms(per Hi-Res models) mainly across the eastern half of the area. This activity will last into the evening hours. The main hazards from storms will be localized flash flooding, gusty winds and dangerous lightning. && .LONG TERM...with the higher speeds ( (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 The best chance of rain will be Saturday and Saturday night across our area as a strong upper level disturbance moves by and abundant moisture will be in the area. There is a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and evening across the area. The main hazard looks to be possible isolated flash flooding due to high PW values(1.5 to 1.75 inches). There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the area. Also, the severe weather risk looks low at this time for Saturday but increasing mid level flow will help improve deep layer shear for at least strong storms. For Sunday through next week look for a drying out pattern as an upper level ridge builds over the Southern Plains. Expect warmer temperatures with highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening are not expected to affect any of our TAF sites. Low cloud development will occur late tonight and early Friday morning over a good portion of the area south of a line from Albany to Paint Rock to northern Irion County. Ceilings should be mostly MVFR but could occasionally be IFR at our southern terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop into the area from the south Friday morning, and across a large part of west-central Texas Friday afternoon into the evening. Carrying Prob30 groups at this time at our TAF sites. Brief reductions in visibility/ceiling are possible in locally heavy rain accompanying the convection. Gusty winds will also be possible with some of the storms. Outside of convective activity, winds will be from the south-southeast at 5-10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 86 68 86 / 0 30 60 70 San Angelo 70 82 66 85 / 20 50 60 70 Junction 68 83 66 86 / 30 50 60 40 Brownwood 69 84 67 84 / 10 30 60 70 Sweetwater 70 87 67 86 / 10 30 50 70 Ozona 68 81 65 84 / 40 60 60 50 Brady 69 82 66 83 / 10 50 60 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...19