735 FXUS64 KSJT 050440 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1140 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A low chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, with localized flash flooding possible. - Hot and dry conditions return for much of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Expect a few showers and thunderstorms this evening but nothing organized. Otherwise, a dry forecast for tonight. For Friday, looks quiet during the morning hours. The combination of moderate instability and abundant moisture during the afternoon will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms(per Hi-Res models) mainly across the eastern half of the area. This activity will last into the evening hours. The main hazards from storms will be localized flash flooding, gusty winds and dangerous lightning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 The best chances for showers and thunderstorms remains Saturday through Saturday night, as models continue to bring a fairly strong upper-level disturbance across the area with ample moisture available. As of this forecast package, there is a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area Saturday through Saturday evening. Some areas of isolated flash flooding will be the main concern, given the higher precipitable water values settling over the area. West Central Texas is expected to remain under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Saturday. Also, the severe weather risk looks low at this time for Saturday but increasing mid-level flow will help improve deep layer shear for at least strong storms. For Sunday through next week look for a drying out pattern as an upper level ridge builds over the Southern Plains. Expect warmer temperatures with highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s, with a few areas across the Big Country reaching the triple digits by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening are not expected to affect any of our TAF sites. Low cloud development will occur late tonight and early Friday morning over a good portion of the area south of a line from Albany to Paint Rock to northern Irion County. Ceilings should be mostly MVFR but could occasionally be IFR at our southern terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop into the area from the south Friday morning, and across a large part of west-central Texas Friday afternoon into the evening. Carrying Prob30 groups at this time at our TAF sites. Brief reductions in visibility/ceiling are possible in locally heavy rain accompanying the convection. Gusty winds will also be possible with some of the storms. Outside of convective activity, winds will be from the south-southeast at 5-10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 90 71 86 69 / 0 0 30 60 San Angelo 88 70 83 66 / 10 20 60 50 Junction 88 68 83 67 / 20 30 60 50 Brownwood 87 69 84 67 / 10 10 40 50 Sweetwater 90 70 86 67 / 10 10 40 60 Ozona 86 68 81 65 / 10 30 60 50 Brady 86 69 82 67 / 10 10 50 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...19