563 FXUS64 KSJT 060504 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1204 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances (40-70%) for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday night, with localized flash flooding possible. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. - Hot and dry conditions return for much of next week and next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 An upper level low is currently centered across northern Mexico and Far West Texas. This feature is then forecast to track northeast reaching the South Plains and southern Texas Panhandle Saturday afternoon and then into Oklahoma Saturday evening. This feature will result in a continuation of rain chances through the next 24 hours. Upper level disturbances ahead of this feature will track across the forecast area, which will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms. Timing these feature is challenging, but the consensus is that one such feature will track across the area late this evening and into the early morning hours Saturday. This will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms this evening to our west and southwest, with this activity tracking east or east northeast across the area. Ahead of this feature, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The main concern will the activity this afternoon and overnight is locally heavy rainfall which may result in flooding of low-lying areas and roadways. THere is some uncertainty on exactly how much coverage we will see overnight, so will continue to monitor trends this evening. Highs this afternoon will be below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 80s for most locations, with parts of the Big Country reaching the upper 80s. On Saturday, the aforementioned upper level low will track across the South Plains and southern portions of the Panhandle. This will result in additional rain chances, especially Saturday afternoon and evening. Expect medium (40-70%) rain chances. In addition to locally heavy rainfall, a few strong to severe storms are possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. Highs on Saturday will continue to be below normal. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s for most locations. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Upper-level ridging will begin to build back across the area Sunday, settling over West Central Texas by mid-week and into next weekend. Highs on Sunday will be near seasonal normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and increase into the 90s to low triple digits for much of next week and into next Saturday. Overnight lows are expected to remain in the 70s through next weekend. Some models are showing some lower chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday next week. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the models, and with this far out in the forecast we didn't stray too far from the NBM which brought low chances (10 to 20 percent) into the long term forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A band of showers and thunderstorms was slowly overspreading northwestern Crockett County at 630 PM. Other showers and storms were concentrated over the northwestern Big Country. Other scattered showers and storms were developing from near Ballinger south-southwest to Interstate 10. The showers and storms were moving generally north-northeast. Carrying VCTS initially at KABI, where new convection is developing. Will monitor radar trends and update TAFs as needed for SHRA/TSRA. Reductions in visibility/ ceiling could occur in locally heavy rain accompanying the convection. Gusty winds are also possible with some of the storms. Late tonight and early Saturday morning, expect patchy low cloud development over portions of the southern half of the area. MVFR ceilings are possible where the low clouds develop. During the day Saturday, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected in the morning and early afternoon. A more organized area of thunderstorms could develop and affect portions of the northern half of the area in the afternoon and evening. The KABI TAF site would most likely be affected. Outside of the convective activity, winds will be from the southeast to south tonight, and from the south or south-southeast on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 86 68 86 69 / 40 60 50 60 San Angelo 86 65 87 69 / 50 70 40 40 Junction 83 66 89 70 / 60 50 20 30 Brownwood 84 67 87 68 / 40 60 40 60 Sweetwater 86 66 86 68 / 40 60 60 40 Ozona 86 65 87 70 / 50 70 30 20 Brady 82 66 86 69 / 50 60 30 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...19