238 FXUS64 KSJT 060909 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 409 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances (40-70%) for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday night, with localized flash flooding possible. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. - Hot and dry conditions return for much of next week and next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Area of heavy showers and thunderstorms that produced rainfall amounts of 2-6 inches last night over the Big Country have mostly dissipated. However, new storms have developed across far eastern portions of the Concho Valley down into the Heartland. This all thanks to an upper level low spinning over the Trans Pecos. High res guidance develops additional showers and thunderstorms over the area this afternoon and evening. Hard to pinpoint exactly where the axis of heaviest rainfall will develop but given a signal in some of the ensemble data and CAMs for another round of storms over the Big Country will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch for this area through Sunday morning. The strongest storms will be capable of producing 1-2 inch rainfall amounts in a short amount of time given the high moisture content levels. Also cannot rule out a few storms to become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the overnight hours before coming to an end Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Upper-level ridging will begin to build back across the area Sunday, settling over West Central Texas by mid-week and into next weekend. Highs on Sunday will be near seasonal normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and increase into the 90s to low triple digits for much of next week and into next Saturday. Overnight lows are expected to remain in the 70s through next weekend. Some models are showing some lower chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday next week. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the models, and with this far out in the forecast we didn't stray too far from the NBM which brought low chances (10 to 20 percent) into the long term forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Showers and thunderstorms should move out of the area by 07-08Z. Another round of thunderstorms is possible on Saturday afternoon and evening. Confidence in timing and coverage is low, but will include a PROB30 group at KABI and KSJT. Otherwise, another round of MVFR/IFR stratus is possible in the early morning hours, with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 86 69 93 75 / 50 60 10 0 San Angelo 87 69 93 73 / 40 40 0 0 Junction 89 70 93 72 / 20 30 0 0 Brownwood 87 68 91 73 / 40 70 20 0 Sweetwater 86 68 95 73 / 60 40 0 0 Ozona 87 70 92 72 / 30 20 0 0 Brady 86 69 90 72 / 30 40 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday morning for Brown-Callahan-Coleman-Haskell-Jones-Shackelford-Taylor- Throckmorton. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...42