738 FXUS62 KTAE 051804 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 204 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Generally dry and pleasant conditions are expected for the next few days. - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all nearshore and offshore waters. There is also High risk of rip currents. - Thunderstorm chances return this weekend, mainly along/west of the Apalachicola River and increase in coverage early next week. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Generally warm and dry conditions are expected through the next several days with a gradual warming and moistening trend. Highs will slowly creep up to the upper 80s and low 90s over the weekend and into early next week, with max heat indices climbing into the 90s and low 100s. Surface high pressure over the Southeast US today will gradually slide off to the east, turning our easterly winds to southeasterly and eventually southwesterly. A quicker moistening trend is expected to commence once more of an onshore component to the flow is established. Ridging in the mid levels will help hamper any convection development over the weekend despite rising moisture levels, with only a few showers and storms forecast across the Panhandle and SE AL. As this ridging breaks down next week, rain chances begin to slowly increase area-wide during the afternoons. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. East winds around 10 knots will drop to 5 knots or less tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Advisory level easterlies will continue through this morning before gradually decreasing. Prevailing surface high pressure to the north will foster moderate southeast breezes this weekend with weakening nocturnal surges. Daily afternoon seabreezes will dominate once again early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Warm and dry weather continues for the next couple of days with a gradual warming and moistening trend kicking off for the weekend and into next week. Breezy east to southeast winds and high mixing heights today will likely lead to high dispersions across the area. Winds are forecast to gradually become southeasterly and eventually southwesterly early next week as the surface high pressure over the southeast CONUS moves eastward. Mostly dry conditions are expected for the next several days, although relative humidity should remain above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 328 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Mostly dry weather prevails through the weekend. Some modest rain chances return early next week, but forecast amounts are currently light. Recent rainfall has increased soil moisture, but long term drought conditions remain. As of June 4th however, all areas except the southern and eastern Florida Big Bend have shown improvement There are no riverine flooding concerns. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 69 88 71 89 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 63 88 67 89 / 0 10 0 0 Albany 65 89 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 65 94 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 74 85 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Wool