395 FXUS62 KTAE 060510 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 - Increasing heat is expected this weekend into early next week. Those who are sensitive to heat or do not have access to adequate cooling or hydration could be impacted by the heat. - A High Risk of rip currents continues along all area beaches. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local officials. - Thunderstorm chances return this weekend, mainly along/west of the Apalachicola River and increase in coverage early next week. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Thursday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Ridging remains situated over the southeast US with some dry air remaining in place through this weekend. Meanwhile, a surge of moisture will move northward along the western periphery of the ridge. This will mostly affect the western and central Gulf Coast, but may scrape our western Panhandle and Alabama counties. Thus, through the weekend, our rain chances are low (20-40%) along and west of a line from Dothan to Mexico Beach, mainly for Saturday afternoon. PWATs will range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches over the westernmost communities to less than an inch farther east. Some gusty wind and locally heavy downpour risk exists if a stronger storm were to develop. Drier air remains over the area Sunday and Monday as ridging remains overhead. This will also allow temperatures to heat up a good bit. Highs by Monday will be in the low to mid 90s areawide. Lows will similarly warm from the upper 60s tonight to the mid 70s by Monday night. Given the hot daytime temperatures and the very warm low temperatures, the chances for major heat impacts will increase. Those without adequate cooling or hydration or those who are sensitive to heat impacts will have a higher chance of being affected by this level of heat. Ridging will weaken mid to late week, which will allow for a return to slightly less hot temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, but the humidity will be on the increase. So our heat index values will climb to the upper 90s and low 100s. Additionally, we'll see a gradual increase in our daily shower and storm chances through the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 VFR conditions are generally forecast to prevail overnight into Saturday. However, a few pockets of fog are attempting to form along the Florida panhandle, so will monitor those trends for KECP and KTLH around sunrise, or between 10-12Z. Southeasterly breezes early this morning turn more southerly for KTLH and KECP as the sea breeze pushes inland with some gusts possible for KECP again this afternoon. While not in the TAFs, there is a low, less than 20 percent, chance for an isolated shower or two along the sea breeze in the western Florida Panhandle between KECP and KDHN. Have left mentioned of rain or storms out of the TAFs due to low confidence, but it's something we'll keep an eye on as the day progresses, with most likely time-frame between 19Z and 23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Cautionary conditions continue this evening over the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola with moderate southeasterly winds. Prevailing surface high pressure to the north will foster moderate southeast breezes this weekend with weakening nocturnal surges. Daily afternoon seabreezes will dominate once again early next week against a background of mainly east to southeast breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Warm and dry weather continues for the next couple of days with a gradual warming trend continuing into next week. Only isolated showers and storms are expected this weekend over the FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Transport winds this weekend will primarily be out of the south to southeast around 10-15 mph, though becoming more south to southwest behind the sea breeze each afternoon. By Monday, with high pressure overhead, winds will be more variable. Dispersions will remain good area-wide. Min RH values will remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s over the next 3 days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Rainfall will be rather sparse over the next week with only isolated to scattered showers and storms in the forecast. Thus, while localized nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out, flooding concerns are low. All area rivers have fallen below action stage as well. Severe to exceptional drought continues for areas generally east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the most beneficial recent rains and rivers are struggling to recover. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 93 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 72 89 73 91 / 0 10 0 0 Dothan 69 89 72 91 / 10 10 10 0 Albany 69 90 73 92 / 0 10 0 0 Valdosta 68 92 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 69 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 73 86 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young