459 FXUS62 KTAE 060639 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 239 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 - Increasing heat is expected this weekend into early next week. Those who are sensitive to heat or do not have access to adequate cooling or hydration could be impacted by the heat. - A High Risk of rip currents continues along all area beaches. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local officials. - Thunderstorm chances return this weekend, mainly along/west of the Apalachicola River and increase in coverage early next week. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Generally warm and dry conditions are expected through the next several days with a gradual warming and moistening trend. Highs will slowly creep up into the low to mid 90s over the weekend and into early next week, with max heat indices climbing into the 90s and low 100s. With ridging overhead on Monday, highs may even approach the mid to upper 90s across portions of the FL Big Bend, although drier conditions should keep heat indices well below heat advisory criteria (108F). While likely remaining below criteria, some heat impacts will still be possible Monday for sensitive groups. Surface high pressure off the Carolina Coast this morning will gradually slide off to the east, turning our winds southeasterly and eventually southwesterly. A quicker moistening trend is expected to commence once more of an onshore component to the flow is established. Ridging in the mid levels will help hamper any convection development over the weekend despite rising moisture levels, with only a few showers and storms forecast across the Panhandle and SE AL. As this ridging breaks down next week, rain chances begin to slowly increase area-wide during the afternoons as a more typical summertime pattern returns. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 VFR conditions are generally forecast to prevail overnight into Saturday. However, a few pockets of fog are attempting to form along the Florida panhandle, so will monitor those trends for KECP and KTLH around sunrise, or between 10-12Z. Southeasterly breezes early this morning turn more southerly for KTLH and KECP as the sea breeze pushes inland with some gusts possible for KECP again this afternoon. While not in the TAFs, there is a low, less than 20 percent, chance for an isolated shower or two along the sea breeze in the western Florida Panhandle between KECP and KDHN. Have left mentioned of rain or storms out of the TAFs due to low confidence, but it's something we'll keep an eye on as the day progresses, with most likely time-frame between 19Z and 23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Prevailing surface high pressure to the north will foster moderate southeast breezes this weekend with weakening nocturnal surges. Daily afternoon seabreezes will dominate once again early next week against a background of mainly east to southeast breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Warm and dry weather continues for the next couple of days with a gradual warming trend continuing into next week. Only isolated showers and storms are expected this weekend over the FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Transport winds this weekend will primarily be out of the south to southeast around 10-15 mph, though becoming more south to southwest behind the sea breeze each afternoon. By Monday, with high pressure overhead, winds will be more variable. Dispersions will remain good area-wide. Min RH values will remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s over the next 3 days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Rainfall will be rather sparse over the next week with only isolated to scattered showers and storms in the forecast. Thus, while localized nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out, flooding concerns are low. All area rivers have fallen below action stage as well. Severe to exceptional drought continues for areas generally east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the most beneficial recent rains and rivers are struggling to recover. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 70 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 88 73 89 73 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 89 70 89 72 / 10 0 10 0 Albany 90 69 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 69 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 93 69 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 74 86 74 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Young