186 FXUS62 KTBW 051726 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 126 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Decreasing cloudiness and warmer today. - Gradual return to more typical summertime pattern early next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)... Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Plenty of sunshine being sponsored by high pressure dominating across the peninsula and dry airmass accompanying it. PWAT values this morning were just over an inch will keep rain free conditions at least early this weekend. Easterly winds prevail becoming breezy in the afternoon both today and Saturday. Afternoon highs will peak around 90 degrees with dewpoints staying in the 60s. Unfortunately, temperatures will warm up a tiny bit each day. Overnight lows will be in the 60s for the last time for a while tonight, so enjoy. On Saturday, pockets of higher moisture will attempt to make it into the area, mostly across SWFL but the majority will stay dry. Highs will max out in the low to mid 90s with mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM (SUN-THU)... Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 By next week, high pressure continues to build supporting further warming. Above normal temperature are expected as highs gradually increase into the mid 90s SUnday and Monday taking the win for the warmest days in the forecast...great time to hit the beaches. Additionally, moisture slowly with showers and storms making a comeback Sunday afternoon, mainly in southern portions of the CWA, and later in the week expanding northward. Model guidance continues to show a disturbance bringing additional moisture and significantly higher rain chances to the area later next week. If this materializes, higher cloud cover and "cooler" temperatures will be in place by mid-week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions anticipated with easterly winds in place. There is some uncertainty on whether or not the sea breeze will make it to TPA this afternoon, so at this time at was included on the forecast. Rain free conditions continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Gradual improvement of boating conditions is anticipated through the weekend as high pressure builds. Low rain chances in place during this time. Then, a disturbance will increase rain chances again by early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Area of high pressure dominates over the region during the next few days with minimal fire concerns expected aside from spotty high dispersions through the weekend. Moisture gradually returns late weekend into next week further limiting local fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 71 93 73 94 / 0 0 0 30 GIF 69 92 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 71 93 73 94 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 66 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 94 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery