800 FXUS62 KTBW 052315 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 715 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 707 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Continued warm and dry over the weekend. - Gradual return to more typical summertime pattern early next week. && .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 707 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 High pressure with much drier air persists over west central and southwest Florida. Skies will become mostly clear after midnight with mild seasonably comfortable conditions overnight. Mostly sunny skies on Sunday with warm temperatures and some increasing cloudiness during the late afternoon hours over the coastal counties due to sea breeze boundary collisions. Only a chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm over southwest Florida in region of best available deep layer moisture. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)... Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Plenty of sunshine being sponsored by high pressure dominating across the peninsula and dry airmass accompanying it. PWAT values this morning were just over an inch will keep rain free conditions at least early this weekend. Easterly winds prevail becoming breezy in the afternoon both today and Saturday. Afternoon highs will peak around 90 degrees with dewpoints staying in the 60s. Unfortunately, temperatures will warm up a tiny bit each day. Overnight lows will be in the 60s for the last time for a while tonight, so enjoy. On Saturday, pockets of higher moisture will attempt to make it into the area, mostly across SWFL but the majority will stay dry. Highs will max out in the low to mid 90s with mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM (SUN-THU)... Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 By next week, high pressure continues to build supporting further warming. Above normal temperature are expected as highs gradually increase into the mid 90s SUnday and Monday taking the win for the warmest days in the forecast...great time to hit the beaches. Additionally, moisture slowly with showers and storms making a comeback Sunday afternoon, mainly in southern portions of the CWA, and later in the week expanding northward. Model guidance continues to show a disturbance bringing additional moisture and significantly higher rain chances to the area later next week. If this materializes, higher cloud cover and "cooler" temperatures will be in place by mid-week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as skies become mostly clear shortly after sunset. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon vcnty PGD/RSW/FMY with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Gradual improvement of boating conditions is anticipated through the weekend as high pressure builds. Low rain chances in place during this time. Then, a disturbance will increase rain chances again by early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Area of high pressure dominates over the region during the next few days with minimal fire concerns expected aside from spotty high dispersions through the weekend. Moisture gradually returns late weekend into next week further limiting local fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 92 75 94 / 10 0 10 0 FMY 70 93 73 95 / 0 0 0 30 GIF 68 91 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 71 93 73 95 / 10 0 10 10 BKV 66 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 74 94 75 96 / 10 0 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming