377 

FXUS65 KTFX 060554

AFDTFX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Great Falls MT

1154 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop mainly along 

  and east of I-15 this afternoon.



- Another round of scattered to widespread showers with isolated 

  thunderstorms expected on Sunday.



- Breezy winds develop this weekend, especially in Southwest MT.



- An active, cooler weather pattern is on tap Tuesday through the

  work week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



 - Meteorological Overview:



Southwest flow aloft today will continue to advect in moisture and 

vorticity maximums across the region. This will bring in 

scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms mostly along and 

east of I-15 this afternoon. However, there will be some rain this

morning along the Rocky Mountain Front. With the stationary front

through Southwest/Central MT already, the thunderstorm threat 

will most likely be off to the east. Mid level winds increases 

throughout the afternoon, which will bring windy conditions to 

Southwest MT.



On Sunday, the main trough axis moves through the region. A cold 

front passage Sunday will bring better chances for scattered to 

widespread precipitation during the day. Weak instability will allow 

for some thunderstorms to develop, mainly towards Central MT. Snow 

levels falling to 6,000 to 7,000ft Sunday morning along the 

southern Continental Divide and down to 5,500ft towards the 

northern Continental Divide will allow for light mountain snow to 

develop. Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday. Stronger 

flow aloft with the trough passing through will slow bring another

breezy to windy day, especially across Southwest MT.



With this trough exiting the region, Monday will be a drier day 

overall. Though Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring a 

low end chance for light showers during the day and breezy winds. 

The main closed 500mb low moves onshore Tuesday, and slowly make 

it's way east through eh week. This will bring another active, 

cooler pattern for the week. There are some differences in models 

with the amplitude and timing of this next trough, which will 

bring subtle differences in precipitation amounts. However, 

ensembles are in agreement for a wetter cooler pattern through at 

least next Friday.



 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:



Weekend Thunderstorm Risk:



Generally, instability isn't really robust for thunderstorm

development today. Also, the main synoptic low being in the 

eastern part of MT doesn't help place us in the best sector for 

warm and unstable air. However, with winds aloft increasing in the

afternoon, I can't rule out a few strong winds with thunderstorms

in Southwest and Central MT.



The main limiting factor Sunday is the timing of the cold front.

The cold front is already reaching Fergus and Blaine County by

12pm, which does not support robust surface heating for

thunderstorms. A little slower in the time of precipitation will

increase the risk for stronger storms. With PWATs decreasing

throughout the day, the heavy rainfall threat with storms are low. 



Lowering snowfall levels Sunday will allow for light snow to

develop, but light accumulations look to remain above pass level.





Winds This Weekend:



The pressure gradient front and increase in winds aloft will keep

windy conditions to Southwest MT Saturday and Sunday. The highest

impacts will be across the higher terrain, with only up to a 30% 

for 50 mph wind gusts in the valleys near the MT/ID border. 

However, showers could bring down some 50-55mph wind gusts to the 

surface. Sunday's winds will be slightly higher, with up to a 50% 

chance for 50 mph wind gusts in those valleys. -Wilson



&&



.AVIATION... 

05/18Z TAF Period 



VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail over the next 24

hour period, with generally clear skies and winds decreasing this

evening. A few SHRA and TSRA will be possible tomorrow afternoon,

particularly around KLWT and KHVR, but there is not currently

enough confidence in timing/coverage to include in TAFs. Ludwig



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GTF  78  49  72  45 /   0  10  30  50 

CTB  72  44  65  39 /   0  20  30  10 

HLN  80  49  74  45 /   0   0  40  50 

BZN  84  46  79  43 /   0   0  20  50 

WYS  75  39  76  40 /   0   0  10  30 

DLN  82  46  78  43 /   0   0  20  20 

HVR  81  48  76  45 /   0  20  10  60 

LWT  78  46  76  42 /   0  20  20  60 



&&



.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls