921 FXUS63 KTOP 051732 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs are forecast to be around 90 this afternoon, but it is expected to feel like 95 to 100. Take it easy if working outside this afternoon. - A stormy pattern is forecast to remain over the region through the weekend. Slow moving storms with heavy rain will be a concern. - Hot and humid weather is forecast by the middle of next week. Heat indices could be around 105 degrees for several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 08Z water vapor imagery showed a subtle shortwave moving through the middle MO river valley. Upstream were a couple closed upper lows over northern Mexico and over the Gulf of Alaska. Surface obs placed an area of low pressure over the CO high plains with an inverted trough extending east along the NEB/KS state line. The 850MB winds have slowly veered more to the west which has allowed the convection over far northeast KS to finally move east. A humid airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70 remained over eastern and central KS. For today and tonight, models struggle to develop any convection from what looks like a lack of synoptic scale forcing. However models prog a very unstable airmass developing with sfc based CAPE values on the order of 5000 J/kg with little inhibition. As low level winds become more southerly through the day, low level convergence along the inverted trough could be enough to set off a new round of storms. Have kept a 20 to 30 percent POP mainly across the northern half of the forecast area because of this. Bulk shear around 25KT may favor slow moving clusters again with a heavy rain threat being the most likely hazard. Confidence in storms developing in KS is a little to low to reissue the flood watch, but if the boundary slips south during the day it may be needed. Models show some warm air advection with southwesterly winds at 925 and 850MB. This is expected to help push temps to around 90 for highs this afternoon assuming convection doesn't initiate early and put out some cold pools. Heat indices are expected to be in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees. This is kind of marginal for a heat advisory, but people out working through the mid afternoon will probably feel the heat and humidity and are encouraged to take it easy. For Saturday and Sunday, the upper low currently over Mexico is progged to lift north through eastern KS. Models don't seem to develop much precip on the northern side of the disturbance on Saturday, but widespread showers and storms are forecast for Sunday. PWs are forecast to be between 1.5 and 2 inches with weak bulk shear. So slow moving storms with heavy rain could be a problem once again. More cloud cover and chances fore rain are expected to hold afternoon highs in the middle 80s for Sunday. Once the upper disturbance lifts north of the region by Monday evening, southwesterly upper flow is progged to set up for the rest of the week. This is expected to allow warm air to advect in from the southwest and push highs into the middle 90s by mid-week. With nothing to scour out the boundary layer moisture, we could be looking at several days with heat indices around 105 degrees and wetbulb global temperatures in the high category for heat illnesses. Precip chances look to be limited with an upper trough and much of the synoptic energy remaining west of the forecast area. There are indications of a frontal boundary moving in from the west late in the week. This could bring better chances for rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Stratus from this morning has scattered out, leaving behind some cumulus early this afternoon around 2-3kft. Otherwise, expect SSW winds to gust near 20 kts at times through around sunset before diminishing this evening. Will be monitoring for additional TS development north of the KS/NE border, and currently think any convection should stay north of terminals tonight. Cloud cover may increase a bit towards the end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Picha