354 FXUS64 KTSA 050444 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1144 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 - Unsettled pattern will maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns. - Organized severe storms are not anticipated, but an occasional strong and/or marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out, especially Saturday through Monday. - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines possible by midweek. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Friday will be quite similar weather wise to Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms once again developing from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, especially during the afternoon. High temperatures will once again warm into the 80s across the entire forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 An upper low over Baja will lift northeast across west Texas and into Kansas Saturday and Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will expand across the entire forecast area during the day Saturday, with coverage and intensity likely increasing Saturday night and Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat, but a few strong to severe storms will also be possible, especially Sunday. Shower and storm chances will persist into Monday as well, mainly across the eastern part of the forecast area. Once this system clears out next week, an upper ridge will build over the area and the heat and humidity will ramp up. Afternoon heat index values may reach or exceed 105 degrees in some places, and heat headlines may be required next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Coverage of showers and storms is expected to steadily wane through the evening. Low clouds are likely to develop late tonight and spread northward impacting all terminals Friday morning. Generally expected MVFR ceilings with lower chance of IFR levels from SE OK into NW AR. Ceilings raise into low VFR levels with isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 87 72 82 / 10 10 10 50 FSM 70 86 71 85 / 20 40 20 60 MLC 71 85 72 83 / 10 30 30 60 BVO 69 87 70 83 / 10 0 10 40 FYV 68 83 68 82 / 10 30 10 50 BYV 67 83 68 81 / 10 30 10 40 MKO 69 85 70 82 / 10 20 20 60 MIO 69 86 70 83 / 10 10 10 40 F10 69 85 70 82 / 0 20 20 60 HHW 70 83 71 82 / 20 60 30 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...07